Saturday

22nd Sep 2018

Brexit would hit Benelux and Ireland hard, says study

  • Trade barriers between the UK and the EU could cost Dutch people up to €1,000 per person (Photo: David Holt)

If the United Kingdom votes to leave the European Union, the economies that face the biggest hit in the EU would be Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg, a Dutch study said on Thursday (9 June).

“There is a relatively large amount of trade between these countries and the UK, and they will be hit the hardest by the trade restrictions that would follow a Brexit,” said a report by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, an advisory institute of the ministry for economic affairs.

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Support quality EU news

Get instant access to all articles — and 18 year's of archives. 30 days free trial.

... or join as a group

  • Former PM's Blair and Major believe a Brexit could “tear apart the United Kingdom”. (Photo: sammydavisdog)

It calculated that, depending on the post-Brexit scenario, GDP in the Netherlands could fall between 0.9 percent to 2 percent.

Without a new free trade agreement to replace the current borderless trade between the UK and the Netherlands, the direct impact of a Brexit could cost around €575 per person in the Netherlands.

Under the assumption that trade leads to innovation and productivity, the per capita loss would be €1,000, the report said.

For the UK, the hit would be even harder without a new trade deal.

“The UK losses in 2030 ... would be around 4 percent of GDP. And, if we assume that innovation would lag behind due to reduced trade levels, these losses may even increase to nearly 9 percent of GDP.

“In that case, the UK losses would be similar to those experienced during the 2008–2009 crisis.”

The losses estimated by the Dutch study are significantly higher than Britain citizens themselves expect to suffer.

A survey published on Wednesday suggested undecided voters believed leaving the EU would leave them £71 (€90) worse off a year.

The reports were published two weeks before British citizens go to the polls, on 23 June.

It came as the Leave campaign criticised the UK government's decision to extend the deadline for registering to vote by 48 hours.

On Tuesday evening, the website where voters needed to register before being able to take part in the referendum crashed. On Wednesday, the government announced it would allow registrations until midnight on Thursday.

“They’ve just told the House of Commons that their website crashed last night because of the high demand, but we know that the government and their allies are trying to register as many likely Remain voters as possible,” Vote Leave campaigner Matthew Elliott said.

Meanwhile, the campaign continues.

Two former prime ministers are expected to hold a speech in Northern Ireland on Thursday, arguing for the UK to remain in the EU.

John Major, of the Conservative party, and his former rival Tony Blair, of Labour, will share a podium to say that leaving the EU could “tear apart the United Kingdom”.

“Not just a shrunken economy, not just a diminished United Kingdom on the world stage, but a smaller country in a very real and literal sense,” Major will say, according to a draft of the speech which was leaked to the British press.

“The most successful union in world history would be broken apart for good.”

There are fears that Scotland, generally more pro-EU than the rest of the UK, would want to have a second independence referendum if the UK leaves the EU without the Scots' consent.

And in Northern Ireland, the fragile peace between nationalists and unionists could come under strain if a land border with the Irish republic were to return, the prime ministers will say.

Cameron warns of Brexit 'madness'

In an TV debate three weeks before the EU membership referendum, the British prime minister defended his promise to curb migration and warned that leaving the EU would be "economic self-harm".

No EU plan for Brexit, Eurogroup chief says

Jeroen Dijsselbloem says EU leaders have no plan in case British voters choose to leave the union and says the pro-EU camp should address emotional as well as rational interests.

Cameron in a pickle over Scotland promises

British PM David Cameron is under fire from his own party and from the Labour opposition for having promised more powers to Scotland but being vague on similar devolution plans for England.

EU parliament will not budge on office expenses

Hungarian centre-right MEP Livia Jaroka sticks to earlier decision: documents related to the minor reform of the expenses system, requested by EUobserver, should remain secret.

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. NORDIC COUNCIL OF MINISTERSThe vital bioeconomy. New issue of “Sustainable Growth the Nordic Way” out now
  2. NORDIC COUNCIL OF MINISTERSThe Nordic gender effect goes international
  3. NORDIC COUNCIL OF MINISTERSPaula Lehtomaki from Finland elected as the Council's first female Secretary General
  4. NORDIC COUNCIL OF MINISTERSNordic design sets the stage at COP24, running a competition for sustainable chairs.
  5. Counter BalanceIn Kenya, a motorway funded by the European Investment Bank runs over roadside dwellers
  6. ACCACompany Law Package: Making the Best of Digital and Cross Border Mobility,
  7. IPHRCivil Society Worried About Shortcomings in EU-Kyrgyzstan Human Rights Dialogue
  8. UNESDAThe European Soft Drinks Industry Supports over 1.7 Million Jobs
  9. Mission of China to the EUJointly Building Belt and Road Initiative Leads to a Better Future for All
  10. IPHRCivil society asks PACE to appoint Rapporteur to probe issue of political prisoners in Azerbaijan
  11. ACCASocial Mobility – How Can We Increase Opportunities Through Training and Education?
  12. Nordic Council of MinistersEnergy Solutions for a Greener Tomorrow

Latest News

  1. Brexit and MEPs expenses in the spotlight This WEEK
  2. Wake-up call on European Day Against Islamophobia
  3. Sound of discord at 'Sound of Music' Salzburg summit
  4. Salzburg summit presses for bigger Frontex mandate
  5. UK's post-Brexit plan 'will not work', EU says
  6. Airbnb agrees to clarify pricing for EU
  7. Libya keeps coast guards rejected by the EU
  8. EU divisions on menu at Salzburg dinner

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. UNICEFWhat Kind of Europe Do Children Want? Unicef & Eurochild Launch Survey on the Europe Kids Want
  2. Nordic Council of MinistersNordic Countries Take a Stand for Climate-Smart Energy Solutions
  3. Mission of China to the EUChina: Work Together for a Better Globalisation
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersNordics Could Be First Carbon-Negative Region in World
  5. European Federation of Allergy and AirwaysLife Is Possible for Patients with Severe Asthma
  6. PKEE - Polish Energy AssociationCommon-Sense Approach Needed for EU Energy Reform
  7. Nordic Council of MinistersNordic Region to Lead in Developing and Rolling Out 5G Network
  8. Mission of China to the EUChina-EU Economic and Trade Relations Enjoy a Bright Future
  9. ACCAEmpowering Businesses to Engage with Sustainable Finance and the SDGs
  10. Nordic Council of MinistersCooperation in Nordic Electricity Market Considered World Class Model
  11. FIFAGreen Stadiums at the 2018 Fifa World Cup
  12. Mission of China to the EUChina and EU Work Together to Promote Sustainable Development

Join EUobserver

Support quality EU news

Join us