Monday

25th Sep 2023

Russian war game to 'intimidate' Nato allies

  • Russian armour on show in May day parade in Moscow (Photo: Dmitriy Fomin)

Russian and Belarusian tanks, jets, artillery, and infantry have begun surging toward EU borders in a massive war game that is taking place amid real Russian aggression in Ukraine and Syria.

Called Zapad 2017, the two-week drill is meant to repel an attack by a fictional state, Veishnoriya, and two fictional allies, Lubeniya and Vesbasriya, that look a bit like Nato and EU countries Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, which currently host around 4,000 Nato troops.

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Become an expert on Europe

Get instant access to all articles — and 20 years of archives. 14-day free trial.

... or subscribe as a group

  • Russian forces, dubbed "little green men", snatched Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 (Photo: Elizabeth Arrott/VOA)

According to Belarus and Russia, Zapad 2017 involves 12,700 soldiers and 250 tanks, as well as 200 pieces of artillery, 70 planes and helicopters, and 10 warships on the borders of the Baltic states, Finland, and Poland.

That would put the drill below levels that obliged Russia to invite foreign military observers in large numbers under a treaty called the Vienna Document, with Nato invited to send just three monitors and with a handful of military attaches from Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Sweden, and Norway to also drop by on brief visits.

But the fact that Russia openly requisitioned 4,200 railway wagons for the manoeuvres has led Germany and Poland to estimate that the real number of troops will top 100,000.

Speaking to Deutsche Welle, a German broadcaster, on Wednesday (13 September), Russian deputy defence minister Alexander Fomin said: "I can calm our dear neighbours straightaway. The exercise is absolutely peaceful, and absolutely defensive in nature".

But for Danish defence minister Claus Hjort Frederiksen, speaking on Danish radio on Thursday, the drill was designed to "intimidate the Baltic states".

There is little concern that Russia might use it to launch a real invasion, but Lithuania's defence minister Raimundas Karoblis, also voiced concern.

"We can't be totally calm. There is a large foreign army massed next to Lithuanian territory," he told the Reuters news agency on Wednesday.

Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato secretary general, warned earlier that Russia's lack of transparency "increases the risk of misunderstanding, miscalculations, accidents, and incidents that can become dangerous".

He said Zapad 2017 was part of a "pattern of a more assertive Russia" that has shown it was "willing to use military force against its neighbours", referring to Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008 and its covert invasion of Ukraine three years ago.

The US has assumed command of airspace over the Baltic countries as a precaution and Ukraine has put its armed forces on alert.

For his part, the Polish deputy defence minister, Michal Dworczyk, said that even if the war game was peaceful, it could result in an increased threat in future.

"There are many doubts and fears that, because of the Russian Federation's previous actions, not all forces and equipment will be removed [from Belarus] after the exercise," he told reporters in Warsaw on Wednesday.

Phillip Petersen, a US defence analyst at the Potomac Foundation, a think tank in Washington, told Polish news agency Pap that Zapad 2017 looked like "preparations for an invasion of the Baltic states and Poland".

"We are heading into a dangerous period. It's not just about the two-week exercise, but probably also about the next two months, because the exercise helps them to be ready for an attack", he said.

The Russian drill comes at the same time as a Swedish exercise involving 19,000 mostly Swedish troops and 1,500 soldiers from the US, France, Norway, and other Nato members.

Sweden, which is not part of Nato, has said its exercise, called Aurora, was not timed to challenge the Russian show of force.

Nato soldiers will take part in a large Polish drill, called Dragon-17, on 25 September.

The Western alliance will also hold six small exercises in the Mediterranean Sea and in Germany, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Romania, and Turkey this month.

EU’s €500m gender violence plan falls short, say auditors

The 'Spotlight Initiative' was launched in 2017 with a budget of €500 million to end all forms of violence or harmful practices against women and girls in partner countries, but so far it has had "little impact", say EU auditors.

Latest News

  1. EU likely to agree on weakened emission rules
  2. China trade tension and migration deal This WEEK
  3. Europe's energy strategy: A tale of competing priorities
  4. Why Greek state workers are protesting new labour law
  5. Gloves off, as Polish ruling party fights for power
  6. Here's the headline of every op-ed imploring something to stop
  7. Report: Tax richest 0.5%, raise €213bn for EU coffers
  8. EU aid for Africa risks violating spending rules, Oxfam says

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. International Medical Devices Regulators Forum (IMDRF)Join regulators, industry & healthcare experts at the 24th IMDRF session, September 25-26, Berlin. Register by 20 Sept to join in person or online.
  2. UNOPSUNOPS begins works under EU-funded project to repair schools in Ukraine
  3. Georgia Ministry of Foreign AffairsGeorgia effectively prevents sanctions evasion against Russia – confirm EU, UK, USA
  4. International Medical Devices Regulators Forum (IMDRF)Join regulators & industry experts at the 24th IMDRF session- Berlin September 25-26. Register early for discounted hotel rates
  5. Nordic Council of MinistersGlobal interest in the new Nordic Nutrition Recommendations – here are the speakers for the launch
  6. Nordic Council of Ministers20 June: Launch of the new Nordic Nutrition Recommendations

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. International Sustainable Finance CentreJoin CEE Sustainable Finance Summit, 15 – 19 May 2023, high-level event for finance & business
  2. ICLEISeven actionable measures to make food procurement in Europe more sustainable
  3. World BankWorld Bank Report Highlights Role of Human Development for a Successful Green Transition in Europe
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersNordic summit to step up the fight against food loss and waste
  5. Nordic Council of MinistersThink-tank: Strengthen co-operation around tech giants’ influence in the Nordics
  6. EFBWWEFBWW calls for the EC to stop exploitation in subcontracting chains

Join EUobserver

Support quality EU news

Join us