Decoupling and fastracking Moldova's EU accession ahead of Ukraine could work

Ukraine and Moldova have been set to join the European Union together by the end of the decade. Both countries were granted EU candidate status in 2022 a few months after Russia launched its full-scale invasion. But the EU has indicated a dramatic shift in this proposed timetable for enlargement. 

Marta Kos, the EU commissioner for enlargement, recently stated that she would not rule out “decoupling” Moldova’s accession process from that of Ukraine.

While the suggestion has been met with criticism from Kyiv, fast-tracking Moldova into the EU might not be such a bad idea strategically, as Russia’s brutal war continues to rage.

Notwithstanding its small size, Moldova is situated in an area of profound strategic importance on the European map.

Odessa, a city that is critical to Ukraine’s economic capacity as a major export hub, lies in close proximity to the Moldovan border.

What happens in Moldova politically has direct consequences for the Ukrainian effort to resist Russia’s all-out aggression. 

Maia Sandu, who was re-elected as Moldova’s president last year, has been instrumental in keeping her country as a provider of regional security. For the first time since it achieved independence in 1991, Moldova is committed to core EU values in democracy and the rule of law thanks to her leadership.

Russia has all but lost its influence in a country that many believed to be in Moscow’s traditional sphere of influence. 

The EU has become Moldova’s main trading partner. 54 percent of total Moldovan trade is with the EU, while the share with Russia has fallen dramatically, to 2.5 percent.

On a societal level, Moscow can no longer claim to be a protector of the Russian-speaking population in the country as a result of its aggressive foreign policy.

Gazprom’s decision to freeze its supply of gas to Transnistria earlier in the year has pushed Moldova’s breakaway enclave closer to the West. 

Under Sandu, Moldova has achieved substantial progress on the path towards European integration. The country’s national security strategy named Russia as the primary threat for the first time.

Last year, Moldova signed a comprehensive security and defence partnership with the EU that will allow it to receive structured support from Brussels to counter Russia’s destabilising activities, such as weaponising political proxies and disinformation. 

Russia's orbit

But despite the strong orientation towards the EU, Moldova still remains vulnerable to falling back into Russia’s orbit.

Sandu’s anti-corruption Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) faces a formidable political challenge in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Previous failed efforts to strengthen democracy in Moldova have left many in the country sceptical about whether PAS can make concrete reforms. The party has also been criticised for marginalising other voices in Moldova’s democratic process. 

With the EU candidate country experiencing a fragile political situation, it is likely that Russia will intensify its campaign of destabilisation in an effort to reverse Moldova’s European integration.

Moscow has actors at its disposal in the former Soviet state that can be used to undermine Sandu’s legitimate pro-European government. Evghenia Gutsul, the governor of Moldova’s autonomous region of Gagauzia, has utilised Russian propaganda to frame her arrest for electoral fraud and vote buying as political persecution.

If Moldova were to lose its pro-European trajectory, it would have profound implications for Ukraine and its ability to withstand Russia.

A pro-Russian administration in Chisinau would afford Moscow a springboard to launch attacks on Ukrainian territory from the southwest in addition to its use of Belarusian military infrastructure from the north.

In this scenario, Ukraine finds itself having to repel Russian forces from multiple directions with the additional challenge of uncertain US support.

Making concrete advances on Moldova’s path towards EU membership is essential to thwart Russia’s campaign to turn the country into a launchpad for further aggression. Ukraine would simply find it much harder to resist Russia without Moldova becoming a strong state rooted in European values. 

A summit of the European Council will take place in Brussels next month. In this meeting, discussions should consider ways to fast-track Moldova’s entry into the EU and, if necessary, decouple Moldova from Ukraine in the enlargement process altogether. 

This would send a strong signal to the Moldovan population that the EU is serious about realising their ambition to live in a secure country free from Russia’s control. But pushing Moldova forward on its European path would also significantly strengthen Ukraine’s position in their fight for national survival. 

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