In the wake of Aleksandar Vucic's defiant display at the UN, draped in the Serbian flag and delivering a nationalist salute, the Balkans once again finds itself at a critical juncture. This act, laden with historical connotations and nationalistic fervor, serves as a stark reminder that Serbia's leadership under Vucic remains entrenched in a divisive past, rather than embracing a pro-Western, European future.
The European Union and the US, however, have yet to forge a unified approach towards Serbia, let alone the broader Balkan region.
This disjointed policy framework is emblematic of broader challenges within EU foreign policy, exemplified recently by its fractured response to the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Similarly, in the Balkans, a cohesive strategy towards Serbia is imperative, built on a foundation of balanced deterrence and diplomatic engagement for regional stability and prosperity.
Following Russia's aggression in Ukraine, Serbia, despite its EU candidate status, refrained from joining EU sanctions against Moscow. Member states pursued individual relations with Belgrade, driven by perceived national interests.
For instance, Hungary – taking over the EU Council presidency on 1 July – maintains robust ties with Serbia and the Republika Srpska, leveraging veto threats within the EU against actions targeting figures like Vucic and Dodik.
France, despite being a staunch EU ally, recently deepened military cooperation with Serbia, showcasing the complexities of member states pursuing independent bilateral agreements.
Similarly, US policy in the Balkans, which focused on integrating Serbia into the Euro-Atlantic sphere to counter Russian and Chinese influence, has struggled. Despite these efforts, Serbia continues to deepen its ties with both Moscow and Beijing.
Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit underscored this trend, resulting in numerous economic agreements, including a controversial extradition pact that runs counter to European human rights norms. Serbia's role as a conduit for Chinese influence, amid broader US-China tensions, undermines Western efforts to maintain strategic cohesion in the region.
Internally, Serbia under Vucic has seen democratic backsliding, erosion of media freedoms, and questionable electoral practices, as highlighted by European observers. The failure to uphold democratic standards not only complicates Serbia's accession path but also perpetuates regional instability and hampers efforts towards Euro-Atlantic integration.
In confronting these challenges, a recalibration of Western policy towards Serbia is imperative. A unified approach, blending robust deterrence with targeted diplomatic engagement, must prioritise engagement with diverse segments of Serbian society beyond the ruling elite.
The notion that Vucic alone can steer Serbia towards Western values and interests must be dispelled
The notion that Vucic alone can steer Serbia towards Western values and interests must be dispelled, replaced by a pragmatic engagement strategy that fosters democratic norms and pluralistic governance.
Moreover, regional dynamics necessitate a merit-based approach towards all Balkan states, moving beyond a disproportionate focus on Serbia.
The region, scarred by the legacy of 1990s conflicts, requires leadership committed to reconciliation and stability. Serbia's persistent interference in neighboring states, from Republika Srpska to Kosovo, underscores the urgency of fostering inclusive leadership that transcends historical grievances.
Drawing parallels from European history, leaders like Willy Brandt and Konrad Adenauer exemplify the transformative power of conciliatory leadership in post-war Germany. Their commitment to reconciliation, epitomized by gestures like Brandt's kneeling in Warsaw and Adenauer's collaboration with de Gaulle, laid the groundwork for European unity and prosperity. In contrast, Vucic's leadership evokes memories of a bygone era under Milosevic, marked by nationalist posturing and regional dominance.
Moving forward, Western policy must not succumb to illusions of Vucic's transformative potential. Instead, it should leverage diplomatic tools and conditional engagement to promote democratic governance and respect for rule of law within Serbia. Concurrently, fostering partnerships with civil society and non-governmental actors can empower pluralism and democratic resilience.
The EU and US must forge a unified Balkan policy that transcends historical divisions and confronts contemporary challenges with resolve and coherence. By recalibrating their approach towards Serbia and the broader region, prioritizing democratic norms and inclusive governance, Western powers can foster a stable, prosperous Balkans integrated into the Euro-Atlantic community. Anything less risks perpetuating instability and undermining decades of investment in regional peace and reconciliation.
Engjellushe Morina is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
Engjellushe Morina is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).