Following the European election results, attention has rapidly focussed on the infamous riddle of the EU top jobs appointments, with much political manoeuvring already in play behind the scenes.
The first official discussion on top jobs will only take place during an informal dinner next Monday (17 June) — when EU leaders will try to find options for the next presidents of the European Council, Parliament and Commission as well as the next EU foreign affairs chief.
No decision is expected to come out of this meeting, although Ursula von der Leyen, who is seeking re-election as EU Commission president for the next five years, might have dreamed of an early affirmation from EU heads of state and government.
But the European Council, which is in charge of organising the informal dinner, has not invited von der Leyen — prompting the commission to demand a place at the table.
"We understand that this is an informal dinner of the members of the European Council of which the president of the Commission is a member and therefore we expect her to be there," a commission spokesperson told reporters on Tuesday.
When it comes to discussing or deciding on top positions, the candidates traditionally step out of the room. This happened in the past with Charles Michel before being appointed EU Council chief or José Manuel Barroso before he was nominated EU Commission president.
One reason von der Leyen wants to be part of this meeting is the discussion of the strategic agenda. However, this topic is expected to be fully explored only during the regular European Council meeting later in June.
EU ambassadors on Wednesday (12 June) requested to divide the meeting into two parts: one on the results of the European election, to which both EU Parliament president Roberta Metsola and EU Commission president von der Leyen could take part; followed by an exchange of views on top jobs without candidates.
And most EU leaders have also backed Michel’s move, an EU diplomat told EUobserver.
“A large majority of leaders have a strong preference that they have a behind the closed-doors debate,” the diplomat said, arguing that this always enables a more honest discussion.
But there is another group of countries that are neutral about whether von der Leyen should be part of the discussion or not, and a "very small group" of leaders who would rather have her in the room, the EU diplomat also said, adding if she is invited, she might have to deal with some leaders asking her to step aside or suggesting other Spitzenkandidates to also be allowed to present themselves and their plans.
Following the last 2019 European elections, none of the two main Spitzenkandidaten, the European Peoples Party’s (EPP) Manfred Weber and the Socialists' Frans Timmermans, were eventually appointed.
Instead, EU leaders brought in von der Leyen from Angela Merkel's defence ministry in Berlin as a last-minute surprise 'dark horse', using their treaty powers.
Figuring out who gets the top jobs is tough because EU leaders want to keep everyone happy — balancing different political groups, big and small countries, gender, and north and south. And this time around, eastern countries, led by Poland, are also expected to demand a top spot.
Von der Leyen is and remains the frontrunner for the EU Commission, after the EPP won the European elections. And only the name of Mario Draghi, an Italian technocrat and former ECB chief, has come out as a potential rival.
But an internal document seen by EUobserver, which sums up discussions between the EU council chief and EU leaders about the next strategic agenda has slammed von der Leyen's self-proclaimed "geopolitical commission" and "the politicisation" of rule of law conditionality, casting doubts about her re-election.
For her reappointment, first, she would need a qualified majority of the 27 EU leaders, and then later support from at least 361 MEPs in the European Parliament.
Also in the mix of the top job as the runners for the presidency of the EU Council are Mette Frederiksen (the centre-left Danish prime minister) and António Costa (former socialist Portuguese prime minister).
And the EPP has shown a preference for Costa, who was embroiled in a corruption scandal last year causing his resignation, and since Frederiksen is also a woman from a Northern country — this would put von der Lean’s position at risk.
"It is possible the presidency of the European Council will go to a socialist candidate,” Portugal prime minister Luis Montenegro said on Monday. "If Antonio Costa is a candidate for this position...the Portuguese government will not only support (him) but will do everything to ensure his candidacy is successful”.
Meanwhile, Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas has emerged as one of the top candidates for the next EU foreign affairs chief. But other names include Sophie Wilmès (Belgian foreign affairs minister) or Radek Sikorski (the Polish foreign affairs minister)
Informal conversations on the top jobs are likely to arise during this week’s G7 meeting in Italy and the Ukraine Peace Conference in Switzerland — just days before the official EU leaders' dinner next Monday.
This article has been updated
Elena is EUobserver's Managing Editor. She is from Spain and has studied journalism and new media in Spanish and Belgian universities. Previously she worked on European affairs at VoteWatch Europe and the Spanish news agency EFE.
Elena is EUobserver's Managing Editor. She is from Spain and has studied journalism and new media in Spanish and Belgian universities. Previously she worked on European affairs at VoteWatch Europe and the Spanish news agency EFE.