Ahmed al-Shara, head of an Islamist coalition that overthrew Bashar al-Assad, was recently appointed president of Syria to steward Syria’s transition. The Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), America’s allies fighting Isis, is wary of replacing one dictator with another.
Shara talks about pluralism, but he has a sordid background.
Before leading Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which 'liberated' Damasus, he was a prominent member of Al-Qaeda and the Nusra front. The US lifted its $10m [€9.7bn] bounty on Shara, but the HTS is categorised as a terror group.
Until Shara proves himself, Washington should be wary of normalising relations and lifting sanctions.
Syria faces serious challenges after 50 years of rule by Bashar al-Assad’s Ba'ath party. About 11 million people were displaced during Syria’s civil war. Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to repatriate them to traditional Kurdish lands in Syria’s northeast, Rojava. The SDC objects to the repatriation of Arabs to Rojava, which could upset the balance of communities in the region.
Erdogan is deeply hostile to the SDC, a secular pro-Western group, which led the fight against Isis. The SDC is under constant threat from Turkey, which supports Isis.
Turkish troops are massed on the border with Syria. Its drones regularly attack SDC positions. Kurdish leaders have been assassinated by Turkish-backed Islamist proxies.
The SDC’s platform of grassroots democracy, women’s empowerment and environmental protection is anathema to Erdogan’s centralised authoritarian rule. It says that the ideology represents a model for decentralised governance that is applicable throughout Syria.
Shara and Erdogan are ideologically and politically-aligned. How will Shara manage Syria’s transition?
The top priority will be to return refugees to their homes.
This starts with the conduct of a census to manage refugee returns. Then Shara envisions a Shura council to draft Syria’s new constitution. He has appointed cohorts from Idlib and parts of northwestern Syria who are religious zealots with little administrative experience.
Beginning on 1 March, Shara plans a dialogue with them and community leaders about Syria’s future governance. Shara has grown accustomed to unbridled power. He says the transition could take three years — or longer.
A system of transitional justice will be needed to guide the transfer of power from Assad’s Alawite-led military to the new regime. This will be difficult in a country with no experience administering the rule of law.
Revenge-taking by Syrians who suffered torture chambers and chemical weapons attacks could disrupt the process of balancing accountability with efforts to rebuild the state, eliminate corruption and cronyism, and end the reign of terror that defined Assad’s rule.
Shara is no angel.
He became the emir of al-Nusra in 2011; Shara — then known by his nom-de-guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, organised resistance to the US occupation in Iraq.
As a member of Al-Qaeda, he participated in the Iraqi insurgency against US forces. He was imprisoned in 2006 at Camp Bucca, which served as a training ground for a whole generation of Islamist terrorists.
Five years later, he joined Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of Isis, and became a protégé of Ayman al-Zawahiri who led al Qaeda after Usama bin Laden. Shara consolidated his power in Syria by orchestrating assassinations of rival Islamist factions. HTS gained control over 80 percent of the Idlib governorate. Ghouta, the Damascus suburb that Assad attacked with chemical weapons, became an HTS stronghold.
By the end of 2017, Shara found common cause with the Turkish military in Operation Euphrates Shield.
This partnership coincided with intensified attacks on the Syrian Democratic Council, America’s ally fighting Isis and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). At least 12,000 SDC members were killed and 25,000 wounded fighting Isis.
Syrian Kurdish leaders were also targeted.
Hevrin Khalaf, a Kurdish leader and founder of the Future of Syria party, was seized on the M4 motorway and executed in Tal Abyad on 12 October 2019.
She was killed by Turkish-backed Ahrar al-Sharqiya fighters aligned with the SNA during Turkey’s cross-border operation “Peace Spring”.
Khalaf was shot in the head and four times in her chest. Her breasts were cut off and body mutilated. There is a video of a Turkish-backed soldier standing over her. He kicks the body and says: "This is the corpse of a pig.”
Turkey supported Isis attacks on Kobani in 2014. Following Shara’s rise, Turkey’s Islamist proxies renewed attacks in the northeast of Syria, launching an offensive on Mambij east of the Euphrates and then targeting Kobani.
Turkish warplanes then attacked SDC positions near the Tishrin Dam in the Ayn al-Arab district. If Turkey succeeds in collapsing the Tishrin Dam, a half million people in the flood plain will be wiped away.
Turkey and its proxies are deeply hostile to US interests. The US must remain vigilant. It must not make the mistake it did with Turkey, welcoming an unproven democracy into Nato. Normalisation of relations with Syria should be based on Shara’s actions, not just his words.
David L. Phillips is an adjunct professor with Georgetown University’s Security Studies Program. He previously worked with the State Department on Kurdish issues, and is the author of Peacebuilding: A Personal Journey.
David L. Phillips is an adjunct professor with Georgetown University’s Security Studies Program. He previously worked with the State Department on Kurdish issues, and is the author of Peacebuilding: A Personal Journey.