Listen: Azerbaijan and Russia are on a collision course, but why now?

On 25 December last year, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 took off from Baku, headed for Grozny in Russia but it never made it. The plane crashed near Aktau, in Kazakhstan, killing 38 of the 67 people on board.

Seven months later, Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev has gone public with an accusation: that the plane was shot down by Russian air defences, specifically, a Pantsir-S missile system. But why is this crisis between the two countries escalating just now?

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You can find the transcript here:

On December 25th last year, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 took off from Baku, headed for Grozny in Russia but it never made it. The plane crashed near Aktau, in Kazakhstan, killing 38 of the 67 people on board. Seven months later, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has gone public with an accusation: that the plane was shot down by Russian air defences, specifically, a Pantsir-S missile system. But why is this crisis between the two countries escalating just now?

So, according to Aliyev, this allegation isn't a suspicion. It’s a fact. “We know what happened, and we can prove it, we know that Russian officials know what happened,” he said.

So far, Moscow’s line is that the incident was a “tragedy” - yes. But their investigation is still ongoing and crucially, no one in Russia has accepted responsibility.

Aliyev isn’t waiting around. He’s preparing lawsuits in international courts, demanding compensation, prosecution of those involved, and a formal acknowledgment from the Kremlin.

But the real story is: why now? Why is this crash, tragic as it is, triggering such open hostility between Baku and Moscow?

Well, because this is about a changing regional order. And it’s about two strongmen who no longer need, or trust, each other.

But, let’s rewind.

For decades, Russia and Azerbaijan maintained warm, even strategic ties. Trade, energy, diaspora links, Moscow was a key partner. But since Russia invaded Ukraine, things have shifted.

Russia has become overstretched, distracted. Azerbaijan saw the opportunity and took it. So, with backing from Turkey, it won back control of Nagorno-Karabakh, ending decades of conflict with Armenia. Russia, officially the peacekeeper in the region, barely lifted a finger. which left both Armenia and Azerbaijan questioning Moscow’s reliability.

Now, Baku is growing bolder. It’s drawing closer to Kyiv. It’s arresting Russian nationals, it’s raiding Kremlin-backed media outlets, and is openly challenging Moscow’s version of events.

Meanwhile, Russia has responded with police raids on ethnic Azerbaijanis, detentions, and what Azerbaijan calls extrajudicial violence. The crash of Flight 8243 didn’t cause this crisis,  it just exposed it.

And let’s not forget the politics behind the scenes: a transit corridor through Armenia that Azerbaijan desperately wants, growing Turkish influence in the region, and the Kremlin’s increasing paranoia about losing control in its post-Soviet backyard.

So, what we’re seeing is the public unraveling of a geopolitical relationship and it’s getting messy.

But, what can we expect now?

Aliyev says Azerbaijan is prepared to take its case to international courts. And he’s also made it clear that this is now a matter of national dignity. As I mentioned, Baku is demanding compensation, prosecutions, and a public admission of guilt from Russia, something the Kremlin is rarely in the habit of doing.

Whether this escalates further remains to be seen. But relations are at their lowest point in decades with open diplomatic snubs, tit-for-tat arrests, and accusations of state-sponsored violence.

And while Russia may be used to operating from a position of strength, in the South Caucasus, that dominance is crumbling.