Sunday

28th May 2023

EU sets date for next wave of enlargement

  • Novi Sad, Serbia. "Western Balkans have a historic window of opportunity," the EU paper says (Photo: Zlatko Vickovic)

The EU is preparing to pledge a 2025 deadline for the next wave of enlargement, but Balkans disputes could hold things back.

"The Western Balkans partners now have a historic window of opportunity. For the first time, their accession perspective has a best-case timeframe," the commission is to say in a strategy paper to be adopted either on 7 or 14 February.

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Become an expert on Europe

Get instant access to all articles — and 20 years of archives. 14-day free trial.

... or subscribe as a group

  • Zaev (l) said name dispute could be solved by July (Photo: ec.europa.eu)

"With strong political will, the delivery of real reforms, and lasting solutions to disputes with neighbours, Montenegro and Serbia should be ready for membership by 2025," the text is to add, according to a draft seen by EUobserver.

It aims to say Albania, Bosnia, Macedonia, and Kosovo "should also be well advanced on their European path by then", or, according to alternative words in brackets, that their "negotiations … should be well advanced."

The paper marks a shift in tone after commission head Jean-Claude Juncker said in 2014 there would be no EU enlargement in the foreseeable future.

Serbia and Montenegro have already opened accession talks.

Albania and Macedonia are hoping to do it this year, if Macedonia can resolve its name dispute with Greece.

Bosnia is angling to gain EU "candidate" status, while Kosovo is preparing to formally ask to become a candidate.

The commission paper warned that local disputes could hold back what it called its "ambitious" timeline.

"The EU cannot and will not import bilateral disputes. This is why all the Western Balkans partners concerned must resolve such disputes as a matter of urgency," the draft said.

It proposed that border issues should be solved by international arbitration, for instance in The Hague, and that rulings must be "binding, final" and "fully respected".

Thorny bramble

The thorniest dispute is Serbia's non-recognition of Kosovo's independence.

The commission paper said, nodding to Belgrade, that "frontrunners on the EU path have a strategic interest" in advocating the EU "aspirations of their partners".

It added that a "comprehensive normalisation of relations between Serbia and Kosovo in the form of a legally-binding agreement" was "crucial" for both their EU prospects.

Kosovo's problems go beyond Serbia, however.

Five EU states also do not recognise its independence.

Meanwhile, its new leader, Ramush Haradinaj, has vowed to block an EU tribunal in The Hague on Kosovo guerrilla war crime allegations.

The US, on Monday, refused to grant him a visa to attend an event in Iowa on 11 February in what looked like punishment.

A Serb general said the same day that Nato had "specific" information on a "security threat" in Kosovo due to the court row.

Name calling

The Macedonia-Greece name dispute could be resolved by July.

Greece has blocked Macedonia's EU and Nato entry talks for a decade on grounds that Macedonia's name implied a claim to a Greek region of the same name.

But Skopje and Athens say they are close to reaching a UN-mediated deal.

"We have a window for a solution," Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras said on Monday after holding talks with Macedonian leader Zoran Zaev.

Zaev said: "I believe there's a chance by the end of the middle of 2018 to find a settlement."

The Greek foreign minister said Macedonia should adopt a composite name with a geographical qualifier. Zaev declined to comment, saying: "I don't want to ruin the procedure of the imminent negotiations".

Laundry list

The list of Balkans disputes goes on 20 years after the wars there ended.

Croatia and Slovenia, which are already EU members, cannot agree on their maritime border in what Juncker said on Monday could hold back wider enlargement.

Croatia also has open border issues with Bosnia, Montenegro, and Serbia.

Kosovo had agreed on its border with Montenegro, but Pristina is now refusing to honour the accord.

Juncker's Balkans agenda is taking shape under Bulgaria's six-month EU presidency, which started on 1 January.

The EU will hold a Western Balkans summit on 18 May in Sofia - the 15th anniversary of a previous one in Thessaloniki, Greece, when member states first promised to take in the region.

The commission also aims to publish its regular progress reports on the Balkans aspirants in April.

"We will decide … in the next eight, nine months how to proceed with each and every one of these countries," Juncker's spokesman said on Monday.

Turkey is the only other country with an EU perspective.

The Western Balkans paper seen by EUobserver did not mention it, but the commission will take stock of relations with Ankara in April.

Russian spoiler

Juncker's plans are also taking shape in the context of heightened Russian activity.

Russia is flooding Balkans media with anti-EU propaganda and stoking Serb nationalism with arms deals.

Last year, suspected Russian spies were behind a failed coup in Montenegro designed to stop it from joining Nato. The Albanian foreign minister, Ditmir Bushati, recently told EUobserver he also expected dirty tricks on the name deal in Macedonia this year.

"This is a possible scenario," Bushati said.

Opinion

2018 will be important for Western Balkans

The door to EU enlargement has at last creaked open, three years after European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker slammed it shut.

Bulgaria calls for West Balkan EU integration after Brexit

The UK leaving the EU gives an opportunity to bring the Western Balkans closer, Bulgaria's PM said in Brussels. Bulgaria will hold the upcoming rotating presidency, while Juncker said Serbia and Montenegro will be EU members by 2025.

Column

What a Spanish novelist can teach us about communality

In a world where cultural clashes and sectarianism seems to be on the increase, Spanish novelist Javier Cercas (b.1962) takes the opposite approach. He cherishes both life in the big city and in the countryside.

Opinion

Poland and Hungary's ugly divorce over Ukraine

What started in 2015 as a 'friends-with-benefits' relationship between Viktor Orbán and Jarosław Kaczyński, for Hungary and Poland, is ending in disgust and enmity — which will not be overcome until both leaders leave.

Latest News

  1. How the EU's money for waste went to waste in Lebanon
  2. EU criminal complicity in Libya needs recognition, says expert
  3. Europe's missing mails
  4. MEPs to urge block on Hungary taking EU presidency in 2024
  5. PFAS 'forever chemicals' cost society €16 trillion a year
  6. EU will 'react as appropriate' to Russian nukes in Belarus
  7. The EU needs to foster tech — not just regulate it
  8. EU: national energy price-spike measures should end this year

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. International Sustainable Finance CentreJoin CEE Sustainable Finance Summit, 15 – 19 May 2023, high-level event for finance & business
  2. ICLEISeven actionable measures to make food procurement in Europe more sustainable
  3. World BankWorld Bank Report Highlights Role of Human Development for a Successful Green Transition in Europe
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersNordic summit to step up the fight against food loss and waste
  5. Nordic Council of MinistersThink-tank: Strengthen co-operation around tech giants’ influence in the Nordics
  6. EFBWWEFBWW calls for the EC to stop exploitation in subcontracting chains

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. InformaConnecting Expert Industry-Leaders, Top Suppliers, and Inquiring Buyers all in one space - visit Battery Show Europe.
  2. EFBWWEFBWW and FIEC do not agree to any exemptions to mandatory prior notifications in construction
  3. Nordic Council of MinistersNordic and Baltic ways to prevent gender-based violence
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersCSW67: Economic gender equality now! Nordic ways to close the pension gap
  5. Nordic Council of MinistersCSW67: Pushing back the push-back - Nordic solutions to online gender-based violence
  6. Nordic Council of MinistersCSW67: The Nordics are ready to push for gender equality

Join EUobserver

Support quality EU news

Join us