As the chief of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen has become one of Europe's most influential women — a powerful position that she has been fighting to keep. But what could five more years of von der Leyen mean for the EU?
Top negotiators have agreed on a second term for the German conservative, according to EU diplomats.
There is no talk of a challenger and everything seems to indicate that she will secure enough support from EU leaders — although she still faces the task of securing the support of at least 361 out of 720 MEPs.
For many, her name represents stability and the ability to navigate any new challenges that may arise, as she showed during the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
However, critics see von der Leyen as a symbol of weakness and technocracy.
Von der Leyen’s self-proclaimed "geopolitical commission" in 2019, which shifted her mandate to focus more on external relations, going beyond her role as head of the commission, raised concerns about impartiality.
But her foreign policy focus is expected to continue, driven by the current geopolitical situation.
"It will continue, if not increase. The world in 2019 was different from now, and in 2024, this geopolitical focus seems more important than ever," said Sophia Russack, a researcher at the think tank CEPS.
Russack also said that it is not the geopolitical role of the institution that erodes the commission's neutrality, but rather the politicisation of the commission itself.
Following her handling of the Gaza war, widely seen as von der Leyen’s biggest controversy, she was accused of having an overly pro-Israeli stance, prompting criticism from EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell, EU Council president Charles Michel, and even EU civil servants.
"Von der Leyen’s trip [to Israel after the war broke out], with such a completely pro-Israeli position, without representing anyone but herself in a matter of international politics, has carried a high geopolitical cost for Europe,” Borrell told Spanish newspaper El Pais earlier this year.
Despite her record in Gaza, her unconditional support to president Volodymyr Zelensky in the Ukraine war and her push for a stronger defence and security industry in Europe has been praised by experts as a step in the right direction.
"Having an experienced hand at the helm of the commission who has proven her worth in pushing the EU security and defence union forward would be no bad thing," Jamie Shea, a former senior Nato official, previously told EUobserver.
The EU’s unconditional support for Ukraine is expected to continue during the next mandate, especially if Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas is approved as the next EU foreign affairs chief.
Defence policy will become the next commission’s main priority, but the push for economic security will keep gaining momentum over the EU’s next mandate, not to mention a reduction in green requirements and bureaucracy in the name of competitiveness.
Europe lacks the economic basis to fund the climate transition or Europe’s defence needs. “We do have a growth problem,” Guntram Wolff, an economist from the think tank Bruegel told EUobserver.
“Three years after Covid-19, we are seeing that the US is rebounding more strongly than Europe,” he added, mentioning AI and space as sectors where the 27-nation bloc was lagging.
The main pending tasks for the next commission include strengthening the EU's single market, improving access to capital, developing an effective industrial policy, and promoting research and innovation.
In this context, one of the main questions is how to make the decade-old project of the Capital Markets Union a reality, bypassing vested interests at the national level.
Trade is also part of the geo-economics equation. Although Wolff doesn’t predict many bilateral agreements during the next term, the finalisation of the EU-Mercosur agreement and deals with Indonesia and India are seen as opportunities to secure influence in the Global South.
On the climate front, von der Leyen will face a very challenging environment – with discussion on the 2040 targets, the role that agriculture plays in the transition and the phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles due to dominate talks
“This will be a make or break moment for the Green Deal,” said Georg Zachmann from the think tank Bruegel, arguing that the introduction of a carbon price for transport and heating fuels (ETS2) will be key for the success of the Green Deal.
Von der Leyen aspires to lead a "Europe that delivers” as she has said repeatedly during her campaign. But her commission has been criticised for not enforcing EU law during this last mandate and for quickly giving in to pressure from either EU member states, lobbyists, or farmers.
"Ursula von der Leyen is an accountant of what the heads of state and government tell her. I am not blaming her, she cannot do anything to regain authority," Romano Prodi, former president of the European Commission told La Stampa.
When it comes to applying and enforcing EU law, her commission has favoured so-called dialogue over infringement procedures — an approach that has drawn criticism from MEPs and experts, who argue that it is an "opaque political process" that may not ensure member states come into legal compliance.
In recent months, she also faced criticism for dropping the Article 7 procedure against Poland, with Visegrad Insight fellow Krzysztof Izdebski arguing that her decision could be perceived as "mainly political”.
The decision, based on an action plan which does not ensure implementation, has already been used by Hungary to accuse Brussels of double standards.
But this is not the first time the alleged ‘politicisation’ of the commission has become an issue.
Her time as head of the EU Commission has also seen incidents such as the PieperGate or Pfizer-text-message scandal that have marred her reputation.
The Belgian courts and the European prosecutors are currently investigating the missing text messages between von der Leyen and Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla regarding a deal for 1.8 billion Covid-19 vaccine doses, but the outcome will unlikely impact her next term.
And the EU Parliament decided in March to sue von der Leyen's Commission for unlocking €10bn for Hungary.
MEPs argued that the decision, made just before an EU summit and following threats by Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orbán to block a €50bn fund for Ukraine, was politically motivated, but the commission is convinced that it will be able to defend its position in court.
The European election results, which made possible a majority coalition between the centre-right EPP group, the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and the liberal Renew Europe, have helped ease concerns about the far-right's rise in the bloc, but the centre today is not the centre of 2019.
And the question is whether mainstream parties can maintain control or give in to the populist wave — especially after von der Leyen left the door open to a possible collaboration between the EPP and the rightwing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group during the campaign.
“It is a real sign of democratic crisis that the so-called centre of politics is now more comfortable considering alliances with the far right than the left,” Aurelien Mondon, a politics professor at the University of Bath in the UK, told EUobserver.
For her part, EU ombudsman Emily O’Reilly recently said the centre held because the EPP and others “shifted their own dial further to the right” especially on the climate crisis and on migration.
“Winning is not just a question of power … but also a question of who is winning the argument, which narrative dominates. In these terms, it is much harder to remain optimistic that the ‘pro-EU centre-ground’ is holding,” O’Reilly also said.
During the 2019-2024 mandate, certain legislative proposals such as, for example, the controversial Nature Restoration Law saw the realignment of the EPP with the ECR and even the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID group), raising doubts about future green EU legislation.
This article has been updated
Elena is EUobserver's Managing Editor. She is from Spain and has studied journalism and new media in Spanish and Belgian universities. Previously she worked on European affairs at VoteWatch Europe and the Spanish news agency EFE.
Elena is EUobserver's Managing Editor. She is from Spain and has studied journalism and new media in Spanish and Belgian universities. Previously she worked on European affairs at VoteWatch Europe and the Spanish news agency EFE.