Listen: The MFF wars have begun

The European Commission has officially proposed in a very confusing manner an almost €2 trillion budget for the 2028–2034 period. The biggest budget, in Ursula von der Leyen’s words, to be spent “for a new era.”

Von der Leyen says this budget will make the EU’s cash pot “larger, smarter and sharper.” But critics warn it may just end up being leaner, meaner, and far more politically painful than she anticipates. So, what are the first reactions, and who wins and loses with the new MFF?

Production: By Europod, in co-production with Sphera Network.

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You can find the transcript here:

The European Commission has officially proposed in a very confusing manner an almost €2 trillion budget for the 2028–2034 period. The biggest budget, in Ursula von der Leyen’s words, to be spent “for a new era.” What are the first reactions, and who wins and loses with the new MFF?

Welcome to Long Story Short, Europod’s daily podcast that breaks down what matters most, in just five minutes. I’m Evi Kiorri, here to make Europe’s latest, long story… short.

Von der Leyen wants to increase defence spending fivefold, triple funding for borders and migration, and pour €100 billion into Ukraine, positioning it as “our most strategic partner.” At the same time, she’s proposing to simplify the EU’s complex funding system by folding emblematic policies like the Common Agricultural Policy and regional development into broader “partnership plans.”

She also wants to shift the way the EU earns its money. Rather than lean on national governments, the Commission is proposing new EU-level taxes on large companies with turnover above €100 million, along with levies on tobacco and electronic waste. The carbon border tax and emissions trading scheme would also help fill the pot.

But this confusing simplification comes with winners and losers. Farmers are up in arms after seeing agricultural funding slashed from nearly €390 billion to €300 billion. Dedicated biodiversity funds have been scrapped altogether. And cohesion money, the kind that helps underdeveloped regions catch up, is no longer protected by separate guarantees.

Not surprisingly, criticism came very quickly. Green MEPs and NGOs, which are affected the most, are angry and call the move to drop nature funding “short-sighted.” Farmers demonstrated outside the Commission. And national governments, particularly those who pay more than they receive, were quick to raise eyebrows. Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden… all voicing concern that the budget is too big and too vague.

Now this proposal attempts to balance wartime resilience, with record funding for defence and support for Ukraine, against mounting financial pressure in national capitals. From inflation to post-pandemic debt, European governments are in no mood to write blank cheques. France is struggling with its own fiscal crisis that could collapse the government. Germany says the budget must not grow. And remember, from 2028, the EU also needs to start repaying the €750 billion pandemic recovery fund, which is another €30 billion a year, nearly the size of the entire research budget today.

On the geopolitical side, defence and energy are clearly front and centre. The EU wants to modernise electricity grids to bring down power prices and boost industrial competitiveness, especially as it tries to keep up with the US and China. The energy budget of the Connecting Europe Facility will grow from €6 billion to €30 billion. But critics point out that these flashy numbers don’t always add up, especially when adjusted for inflation or when older programmes are simply rebranded.

And let’s not forget voices like Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orbán, who is already saying that European farmers mustn’t be “abandoned to bankroll Ukraine.” If that’s not a preview of upcoming battles, I don’t know what is.

So what’s coming next?

Well, the Commission just fired the starting gun on two years of negotiations, and they will be bitter. Every EU member state and the European Parliament must approve the final budget unanimously. That means 27 national interests, ideologies and bottom lines to reconcile.

Some MEPs are already accusing the Commission of clever accounting, inflating the apparent size of the budget without increasing actual spending power. Others say it doesn’t do enough for competitiveness, cohesion, or the climate. And with national capitals keeping a close eye on their wallets, we can expect plenty of red lines and veto threats.

Von der Leyen says this budget will make the EU’s cash pot “larger, smarter and sharper.” But critics warn it may just end up being leaner, meaner, and far more politically painful than she anticipates.