Listen: Can the EU afford its €1.7 trillion future?

This afternoon, EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen is expected to present a draft proposal for the European Union’s next seven-year budget, officially called the Multiannual Financial Framework, or MFF.

The current MFF, running from 2021 to 2027, stands at just over €1.2 trillion. But according to a leaked draft, the next proposal, covering 2028 to 2034, could reach €1.717 trillion, or 1.23 percent of the EU’s gross national income. That’s up from about 1.1% now.

With political divides deepening and resources stretched thin, can this budget still deliver on Europe’s promises?

Production: By Europod, in co-production with Sphera Network.

EUobserver is proud to have an editorial partnership with Europod to co-publish the podcast series “Long Story Short” hosted by Evi Kiorri. The podcast is available on all major platforms.

You can find the transcript here:

This afternoon, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is expected to present a draft proposal for the European Union’s next seven-year budget, officially called the Multiannual Financial Framework, or MFF. But with political divides deepening and resources stretched thin, can this budget still deliver on Europe’s promises?

Welcome to Long Story Short, Europod’s daily podcast that breaks down what matters most, in just five minutes. I’m Evi Kiorri, here to make Europe’s latest, long story… short.

The current MFF, running from 2021 to 2027, stands at just over €1.2 trillion. But according to a leaked draft, the next proposal, covering 2028 to 2034, could reach €1.717 trillion, or 1.23% of the EU’s gross national income. That’s up from about 1.1% now.

That increase isn’t arbitrary. It’s partly meant to address growing pressures: Ukraine, climate transition, global competitiveness, and defence. The draft also proposes new “own resources”, in other words, EU-wide taxes, on things like electronic waste, tobacco, and large companies with a turnover above €50 million.

A new €522 billion Competitiveness Fund is planned, while €190 billion would go to foreign policy – under what’s called “Global Europe”. €88 billion could be dedicated to Ukraine, and €946 billion earmarked for Europe’s social model and quality of life.

But to free up money for these priorities, the Commission is also planning significant cuts potentially to agriculture, regional development, and cohesion funds. In short, this budget proposal is both bigger and more centralised.

Now, this budget will define Europe’s strategic direction in a volatile world, where war is no longer a distant concept. From 2028, the EU will begin repaying debts from its COVID recovery fund, to the tune of €30 billion annually. That alone puts enormous pressure on the budget.

Without fresh revenue streams, the EU will be forced to choose between cutting programmes or asking member states to contribute more. And that’s a tough sell, especially in countries like Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden, which are net contributors and already resistant to higher spending.

Meanwhile, the Commission is proposing to centralise spending through a merged fund, combining cohesion, agriculture and security spending, with plans for so-called “National and Regional Partnerships.” This model, replicating the Recovery and Resilience Facility, has triggered warnings from the European Parliament and EU auditors over transparency, democratic oversight and the risk of sidelining local authorities.

There’s a growing concern that what is being framed as “flexibility” may in fact be a shift towards executive control by Brussels – a consolidation of power that could come at the cost of regional equality and democratic checks.

What’s next?

Today’s proposal is just the beginning. The Commission’s draft will now enter a long, likely contentious, negotiation process with the European Parliament and member states, a process expected to last up to two years.

The European Parliament has already set red lines. MEPs want to keep separate legal bases for agriculture and cohesion funds, safeguard programmes like Horizon Europe and the Social Fund, and introduce new crisis tools, from housing to child welfare.

But without new EU income, like taxes on tech giants or carbon-heavy imports, even current spending will be hard to sustain. And if the Commission pushes its centralised model, it could face institutional pushback or legal challenges.

So, the stakes go beyond the €1.7 trillion headline because this is about how Europe funds not just its priorities, but its political identity.

But that’s all for today on Long Story Short, a podcast by Europod in partnership with the Sphera Network. You can also find us on the EUobserver website, go check it out. Thanks for listening. I’m Evi Kiorri, and I’ll be back tomorrow at 12:30 with more insights in just five minutes. See you then!