The EU’s migration dilemma is back, not that it ever really went away. Member states are once again clashing over asylum rules, exposing old rifts that the bloc has spent years trying, and failing, to gloss over.
This week, the European Commission published its first annual migration management cycle. Think of it as a map of who needs help, who should give help, and who is already signalling they’ll try very hard to avoid both.
Production: By Europod, in co-production with Sphera Network.
EUobserver is proud to have an editorial partnership with Europod to co-publish the podcast series “Long Story Short” hosted by Evi Kiorri. The podcast is available on all major platforms.
You can find the transcript here if you prefer reading:
The EU’s migration dilemma is back, not that it ever really went away. Member states are once again clashing over asylum rules, exposing old rifts that the bloc has spent years trying, and failing, to gloss over.
This week, the European Commission published its first annual migration management cycle. Think of it as a map of who needs help, who should give help, and who is already signalling they’ll try very hard to avoid both.
Two countries didn’t wait long to make their positions clear. Hungary and Poland say they will neither accept asylum seekers nor pay the penalties for refusing. Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk even said that: “Poland will not accept migrants under the migration pact. Nor pay for it. That’s already a decision.”
Meanwhile, the commission has identified Greece, Cyprus, Spain, and Italy as being under acute migratory pressure, meaning too many arrivals and too few resources. These countries will be entitled to support from the new 'solidarity pool,' whether through relocations or financial aid.
On the other side, countries such as Germany, Austria, Czechia, Estonia, Croatia, and even Poland may receive temporary exemptions until the end of 2026, because they already host large numbers of refugees or have recently faced significant migration pressure.
Then there’s a third group, Belgium, France, Ireland, Finland, the Netherlands, and others, labelled “high risk”. They’re not exempt, but they do get priority access to EU funding and operational tools.
On paper, this all sounds organised. EU countries must help manage asylum pressures by relocating at least 30,000 people a year, or paying €20,000 for every asylum seeker they refuse to relocate.
Europe has tried this before, and the results were not good at all. A decade ago, the EU agreed to reallocate 160,000 asylum seekers. Only 33,000 were actually relocated.
The backsliding continues. EU countries have pledged just 15,000 UN-recognised refugee resettlement places for 2026 and 2027, a 75 percent drop from their commitments for 2024 and 2025. The International Rescue Committee called these numbers “catastrophic”.
And then comes the issue of responsibility.Under the Dublin rules, asylum seekers should have their cases processed in the first EU country they enter, usually Italy or Greece. But Italy, politically cornered and financially stretched, has said it cannot enforce this. Last year, it accepted just 60 Dublin transfers out of 24,000 requests.
Now this matters because the EU’s asylum system only works if everyone does their part.
Frontline countries like Greece and Italy end up carrying a disproportionate burden. Reception centres overflow, asylum procedures stall, and national politics turn migration into a permanent crisis narrative.
At the same time, countries refusing to participate in relocations send a clear message: domestic politics outweigh EU commitments. That erodes trust, not only between member states, but also between institutions and citizens.
The Commission says rebuilding trust is a “collective duty”. But trust is difficult when past relocation schemes collapsed, pledges were ignored, and exemptions became the norm instead of the exception.
And at the centre of all of this are the people affected the most, the asylum seekers. The consequences for them are immediate, overcrowded facilities, long waits, and a patchwork system where their chances depend entirely on the border they cross.
So, what’s next?
Over the coming months, EU governments will negotiate the final details of the Solidarity Pool: how many people will be relocated, how much money countries must contribute, and who qualifies for exemptions.
The Commission will assess each country individually, but the real power lies with the Council, meaning national governments. And by the end of the year, governments will need to submit their official solidarity pledges.Once approved, the scheme becomes legally binding, marking the biggest reform of the EU’s asylum system in nearly ten years.
Evi Kiorri is a Brussels-based journalist, multimedia producer, and podcaster with deep experience in European affairs.
Evi Kiorri is a Brussels-based journalist, multimedia producer, and podcaster with deep experience in European affairs.