Dutch MPs on Thursday (3 July) are set to vote on asylum laws proposed by the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), including a passed amendment that would make it a crime to help people with no residency status.
The laws span everything from shortening residency permits from five to three years, reviewing temporary asylum permits every three years, and making family reunification almost impossible. It also seeks to impose a dual status system that differentiates people fleeing war from individual persecution.
"Part of this is signalling 'don't come here'. It's about deterrence. Whether that really works is highly questionable," said Bram Frouws, director at the Mixed Migration Centre on Wednesday (2 July).
On Tuesday, a last-minute amendment to criminalise undocumented migrants, as well as those who help them, mustered enough support after several Dutch MPs failed to show up for the vote – some because they were attending a yearly commemoration of the abolishment of slavery.
"In a way, the PVV could probably consider this a win yesterday," said Frouws of the amendment, which may hit churches and faith-based organisations given their help for migrants in the Netherlands.
The amendment has since scuppered wider support for the asylum package from the opposition Christian Democratic Party (CDA) as well as the New Social Contract, posing questions whether it will even pass in the Senate.
There are also other factors at the play, including the EU's pact on asylum and migration. The Netherlands, like the other 26 EU states, have one year to implement the overhaul.
But demanding Dutch agencies implement both the EU pact and the planned PVV asylum reforms at the same time will be onerous.
Frouws also said that the number of asylum seekers in the Netherlands is below average, mostly due to the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.
"It is not a major issue. It's a big political issue," he said, noting that net migration in the Netherlands is around 200,000.
The vast majority are students or people who come to work legally. Of those, up to 15 percent are asylum seekers, he said.
Dr Lynn Hillary, assistant professor at the University of Amsterdam, made similar observations.
The proposals, if passed, would lead to less security and fewer rights for asylum seekers, she said.
But it would also place a huge administrative burden on the Dutch Immigration and Naturalisation Service (IND), an underfunded agency that oversees applications of people who want to live in the country.
"They [IND] will have to distinguish between refugees and subsidiary protection, which is legally a more challenging assessment to make than just answering the question: is this someone who needs protection?" she said.
The IND would also have to re-assess a person's temporary residency status every three years, further adding to a workload of an already overstretched agency.
IND figures from April indicate that almost 18,000 people have been waiting between six to 15 months for a decision, according to the Dutch Council for Refugees. And almost 19,000 have been waiting for more than 15 months, it says.
With elections in October on the horizon, the political mood against migration and asylum seekers in the Netherlands appears to be distraction from a bigger domestic issues, such as the housing crisis.
But Wilders on Wednesday on X said his party will vote in favour of the two asylum laws. He also wants to send guards to the borders and turn back all asylum seekers entering from Germany and Belgium.
"The Netherlands must become the property of the Dutch again and the Dutch must be put first again," he said.
The Dutch politician, who is no stranger to controversy, wants to create Europe's strictest asylum regime.
Last month, he plunged the country into political turmoil after withdrawing from the governing four-party coalition.
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Nikolaj joined EUobserver in 2012 and covers home affairs. He is originally from Denmark, but spent much of his life in France and in Belgium. He was awarded the King Baudouin Foundation grant for investigative journalism in 2010.
Nikolaj joined EUobserver in 2012 and covers home affairs. He is originally from Denmark, but spent much of his life in France and in Belgium. He was awarded the King Baudouin Foundation grant for investigative journalism in 2010.