Thursday

7th Dec 2023

Opinion

Bulgaria’s turn to the West

  • Kerry in Sofia last week (Photo: state.gov)

Perched on the edge of the EU, Bulgaria rarely draws the attention of international media.

When it does, the news is anything but uplifting: the country’s fourth largest bank going bust, a bus full of Israeli holidaymakers bombed, yet another wave of street protests.

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Become an expert on Europe

Get instant access to all articles — and 20 years of archives. 14-day free trial.

... or subscribe as a group

  • Bulgaria remains highly dependent on Russian energy imports (Photo: gazdefrance.com)

Yet, the latest story is different.

The high-profile visits by US State Secretary John Kerry and his British counterpart Philip Hammond left many puzzled about Sofia had suddenly come into the spotlight.

The answer has to do with both the effort of the current centre-right government to rekindle ties with large Western allies as with geography and long-term political legacies.

The West’s confrontation with Russia has exposed the vulnerability of virtually all post-communist countries that joined the EU and NATO in the past decade.

While some like the Baltics and Poland have taken a hawkish stance others, including Bulgaria, engage in an increasingly tough balancing act.

Once known as the USSR's 16th republic, the country remains dependent on Russian energy imports while Putin has lots of starry-eyed admirers romanticising about the good old days. But it is money, not sentiments, that is at play.

The Kremlin’s decision to abandon South Stream sent shockwaves in Sofia as the multibillion project held out the promise of lucrative contracts for politically-connected construction businesses.

Energy sector reforms

The question is whether Bulgaria’s government will be able to leverage ties with the US, UK or other powerful Western states to level the playing field with Russia.

Kerry’s assurances that America will offer a helping hand to Bulgaria to diversify its gas supplies are an important symbolic gain for Prime Minister Boiko Borisov and Daniel Mitov, the foreign minister. Yet it is not very clear what the US could deliver, short of actually investing in linking Bulgaria’s gas grid with those of southern neighbours.

The construction of the interconnector with Greece (ICG), which could bring in Azeri gas in the future, is yet to begin. The one with Turkey is still being negotiated. In either case, money will come from the EU budget and national contributions.

So no US company has expressed an interest.

But it is up to the Bulgarian authorities to use the political momentum and make the business case for such a project.

In a parallel story, the government is in talks with Westinghouse to build a new unit at the Kozloduy nuclear power plant, which runs on Soviet technology, but lacks the cash to move forward.

Rosatom is taking legal action over the abandoned contract to build a second nuclear station at Belene. A defeat would give Moscow yet another trump card.

In truth many of the Bulgarian wounds are self-inflicted.

They stem from a chronic incapacity to reform the ailing energy sector, which has become known for cronyism, lack of transparency and high-level corruption.

Vested interests and bureaucratic inertia have delayed the modernisation of the infrastructure and overall governance, and diverted scarce resources into large-scale endeavours of questionable economic value, such as Belene and the Bulgarian section of South Stream.

Making friends in DC, Brussels or Berlin may be important but breaking up with other friends from amongst Bulgaria’s oligarchic class is critical.

Experience shows that a nudge from outside is a necessary, if not sufficient, condition.

European integration

The depressing reality is that Bulgaria has been lagging behind most of the EU in the quality of governance and the rule of law. The economic downturn across Europe and the captured state at home are both to blame.

Brussels’ Cooperation and Verification Mechanism (CVM) has not achieved much in overhauling the judiciary and stamping out corruption. The challenge is how to narrow the gap.

Winning sympathy in key Western capitals surely helps. It made a huge difference in a critical year like 1999 when Tony Blair lobbied hard for Bulgaria (and Romania) to start membership talks with the EU. But institutions and structures outweigh personal relations.

What Bulgarian elites should be pushing for is joining the inner sanctum of European integration.

Last week’s announcement that the government would pursue membership of ERM-2, the Eurozone’s waiting room, has enormous significance.

It gives leverage to current members to demand fresh reforms across critical sectors.

That will be a clear signal to investors at home and abroad, especially if the government is serious about the adoption of the euro. As the Baltic countries know, moving closer to the core of EU will upgrade security, in addition to bringing in economic benefits.

The Bulgarian government is right to reach out to the US. But longterm success may depend on revamping the good old EU transformative agenda.

Dr Dimitar Bechev is Visiting Fellow at LSEE Research on South Eastern Europe, London School of Economics (LSE), and lectures in international politics at Sofia University.

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this opinion piece are the author's, not those of EUobserver.

Tusk's difficult in-tray on Poland's judicial independence

What is obvious is that PiS put in place a set of interlocking safeguards for itself which, even after their political defeat in Poland, will render it very difficult for the new government to restore the rule of law.

Can Green Deal survive the 2024 European election?

Six months ahead of the EU elections, knocking an 'elitist' climate agenda is looking like a vote-winner to some. Saving the Green Deal and the EU's climate ambitions starts with listening to Europeans who are struggling to make ends meet.

Can Green Deal survive the 2024 European election?

Six months ahead of the EU elections, knocking an 'elitist' climate agenda is looking like a vote-winner to some. Saving the Green Deal and the EU's climate ambitions starts with listening to Europeans who are struggling to make ends meet.

Latest News

  1. Spain's Nadia Calviño backed to be EIB's first female chief
  2. Is there hope for the EU and eurozone?
  3. Crunch talks seek breakthrough on EU asylum overhaul
  4. Polish truck protest at Ukraine border disrupts war supplies
  5. 'Green' banks lend most to polluters, reveals ECB
  6. Tense EU-China summit showdown unlikely to bear fruit
  7. A look to the past and the future of China-EU relations
  8. Tusk's difficult in-tray on Poland's judicial independence

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Nordic Council of MinistersArtist Jessie Kleemann at Nordic pavilion during UN climate summit COP28
  2. Nordic Council of MinistersCOP28: Gathering Nordic and global experts to put food and health on the agenda
  3. Friedrich Naumann FoundationPoems of Liberty – Call for Submission “Human Rights in Inhume War”: 250€ honorary fee for selected poems
  4. World BankWorld Bank report: How to create a future where the rewards of technology benefit all levels of society?
  5. Georgia Ministry of Foreign AffairsThis autumn Europalia arts festival is all about GEORGIA!
  6. UNOPSFostering health system resilience in fragile and conflict-affected countries

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. European Citizen's InitiativeThe European Commission launches the ‘ImagineEU’ competition for secondary school students in the EU.
  2. Nordic Council of MinistersThe Nordic Region is stepping up its efforts to reduce food waste
  3. UNOPSUNOPS begins works under EU-funded project to repair schools in Ukraine
  4. Georgia Ministry of Foreign AffairsGeorgia effectively prevents sanctions evasion against Russia – confirm EU, UK, USA
  5. Nordic Council of MinistersGlobal interest in the new Nordic Nutrition Recommendations – here are the speakers for the launch
  6. Nordic Council of Ministers20 June: Launch of the new Nordic Nutrition Recommendations

Join EUobserver

Support quality EU news

Join us