'Qualified majority' of EU states sign anti-Orbán pushback

Homophobia, as well as Russophilia, could cost populist Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán his EU veto, 20 other EU countries have shown. 

The 20 capitals signed a letter on Tuesday (27 May) urging the European Commission to fine Orbán over his de facto ban of Budapest Pride, a major LGBTI event. 

Some of their envoys also gave Orbán's EU affairs minister, János Bóka, a hard time at a now-routine hearing about abuse of rule of law in Hungary in the EU Council in Brussels the same day.

"We need to consider next steps because this is getting pointless, these hearings," said Swedish EU affairs minister Jessica Rosencrantz, for one. 

The clash on EU values comes amid a wider crisis on whether Hungary is on the Western side or Russian side in the Ukraine War, with Bóka, on Tuesday, pledging to uphold a veto on starting Ukraine's EU accession talks, on grounds of unproven allegations that Ukrainian spies were trying to topple Orbán's rule.

And some EU affairs ministers, who normally discussed kitchen-sink issues such as carbon tax, brought up geopolitics as well as LGBTI rights in the EU talks on Tuesday.

"Some things Hungary is doing on Ukraine's accession I just think it's wrong. It's wrong," said Ireland's EU affairs minister, Thomas Byrne, for instance.

The "next steps" could see the EU Commission amp up financial pressure on Orbán. 

They could also see fellow EU states strip him of his EU Council vote and veto under Article 7 of the EU treaty on violating basic rights. 

The commission could seek an EU court injunction to lift the anti-Budapest Pride law or other anti-civil society laws on pain of fines, such as previous €1m/day penalties against Poland. 

It could withhold further EU budget funds, on top of €18bn in frozen Hungarian money for Orbán's earlier abuses. 

Triggering Article 7.2 of the EU treaty on establishing the "existence" of an EU-values crisis in Orbán's Hungary requires unanimity of the other 26. 

The pro-Russia and pro-Orbán populist Slovakian prime minister Robert Fico might object, but this could also see Fico pressured over losing EU money by France and Germany.

Subsequently triggering Article 7.3 on stripping Hungary's Council vote is done by a qualified majority vote. 

And the 20 EU states who signed the anti-Orbán and pro-LGBTI letter on Tuesday have big enough populations for a QMV majority even if Poland, the EU presidency, abstained.

Poland did not sign the LGBTI letter due to protocol reasons, as the current holder of the EU presidency, which is meant to be neutral, Poland's EU affairs minister Adam Szłapka explained to press on Tuesday. 

The other countries who didn't sign were: Bulgaria, Croatia, Italy, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia. 

Tuesday's LGBTI talks come as EU diplomats discuss the 18th round of Russia sanctions. 

Wider Russia clash

But Orbán has also threatened to veto the rollover of EU trade sanctions on Russia, due in July, creating a potential foreign policy crisis on top of the values clash. 

There was "growing frustration with Hungary in general," said Ireland's Byrne on Tuesday. 

"Certainly some member states want to move on with Article 7 and to bring it to the next level," he said.

Commenting on Orbán’s EU sanctions rollover threat, Byrne added: "We've seen threats of vetoes that haven't materialised [in the past]". 

"It's premature to start talking about workarounds when the process [of agreeing the EU sanctions extension] is still ongoing," Byrne added. 

But despite his caveat, Orbán-workarounds are being discussed in Brussels by lower-level diplomats, EU sources said.

These include replicating EU sanctions in the 26 other national jurisdictions to nullify Hungary's EU hack, or using tariffs to replicate EU anti-Russian trade measures. 

Tariffs are also decided by QMV and the EU aims to impose taxes on Russian fertiliser from 1 July using the trade route, an EU diplomat told EUobserver, following record-quick EU Parliament-EU Council talks. 

Tuesday's EU Council talks on EU values in Hungary were also being followed by Ukraine sanctions hawks for their geopolitical implications. 

"As we can see, Hungary's behaviour has already tired the big European countries. We will see the consequences in the near future," Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko told EUobserver on Tuesday.

Going back to populism, Bóka said in Brussels on Tuesday it wasn't true Orbán's Fidesz wanted to ban Budapest Pride. 

But its new laws would see the government use facial-recognition to analyse the crowd and impose up to €500 fines for attendance. 

Orbán values

The Fidesz party has also previously used antisemitic propaganda — despite Orbán's close ties with Israel's war crime-tainted prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

One of Orbán's closest party allies, former Hungarian MEP József Szájer, faced disgrace in 2020 when Belgian media spotted him at a gay orgy in Brussels, in a show of Fidesz cynicism with regard to its avowed anti-LGBTI values.

Orbán gave Szájer a second chance by letting him start a new think-tank in Hungary last year. 

But the drainpipe Szájer climbed down to escape the Covid-era party in Brussels after a Belgian police raid was still a monument to Fidesz hypocrisy five years later, said David Manzheley, who organised the 2020 Szájer-sex party. 

"As before" Hungarian tourists to the EU capital still put anti-Orbán stickers on the pipe, Manzheley told EUobserver on Tuesday. 

And "they [Fidesz] shouldn't base important laws, for the good of Hungarian people, on their own repressed sexual deviance by banning LGBTI pride," he told this website. 

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