Russia's post-imperial self-image holds key to peace in Europe

In contrast to the former colonial powers of Western Europe, Russia has maintained a deep attachment to its imperial tradition into the 21st century. Restoring long-term stability to the European continent will require Russia to develop a robust sense of nationhood — one that respects the independence and sovereignty of its neighbours.

It should be the task of Nato and Nato member states to create a geopolitical environment conducive to this outcome.

From a Western perspective, the fall of the Soviet Union symbolised the ‘end of history’ — the triumph of liberal-capitalist democracy over the ideological threat of communism.

The assumption was widely held that the states that once belonged to the Eastern Bloc would naturally embrace democratic values after decades of communist oppression.

But the Soviet collapse had a profound effect on the Russian national psyche. It had destroyed the statehood (‘gosudarstvennost’) that had defined Russia’s self-identity for over a thousand years.

The loss of Ukraine came as a shock in particular.

It was the site of the ancient Orthodox state of Kievan Rus, which many Russians believe to be the origins of their state. This new reality of diminished geopolitical standing, combined with the socio-economic turmoil of the 1990s, led Russia to associate the post-Soviet transition with trauma and instability. 

These conditions made it difficult for Russia to come to terms with the loss of its great-power status.

The Kremlin refused to accept a post-Cold War international order that consigned Russia to the fringes of eastern Europe.

At the same time, the United States was taking steps that Russia perceived as an encroachment on what it considers to be its traditional sphere of influence.

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, Nato conducted a bombing campaign in Kosovo and expanded eastwards to include the former Warsaw Pact states. Mass demonstrations in support of democracy erupted in Georgia and Ukraine.

The need for an assertive state that can defend Russia’s interests in a hostile world formed the conceptual foundation of Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian rule. 

Russian Orthodoxy

The Russian people have a deeply-rooted belief that their country is a distinct civilisation and deserves recognition as a great power. Following the fall of Constantinople in 1453, Moscow portrayed itself as the last remaining defender of Orthodoxy — what Russians believe to be the true form of Christianity as opposed to the Roman Catholicism of Western Europe.

Situated on the vast Eurasian plain with few natural defences against external invasion, Moscow used expansionism to protect the Orthodox faith. This practice of empire-building, or ‘the drive to gather the Russian lands’, would leave a lasting impact on Russia’s understanding of its self-identity. In the Soviet era, Stalin justified his invasion of Poland in 1939 as a ‘national liberation’ of Belarusian and Ukrainian ‘brothers and sisters’.

Putin’s decision to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was not an isolated event that either the Ukrainians or Nato-provoked.

Rather, it is the latest revival of Russia’s centuries-old imperial tradition, which was supposed to be over in a matter of days, presenting another fait accompli similar to the annexation of Crimea.

The Russian president has frequently made clear his goal to eradicate Ukraine and its right to existence. In 2014, Putin reintroduced the Tsarist concept of ‘Novorossiya’ — a large swathe of territory covering one third of modern-day Ukraine (including Crimea) that Catherine the Great captured from the Ottoman Empire.

Russia’s latest foreign policy concept, published in 2023, confirmed the Kremlin’s long-term expansionist intentions; declaring Russia a ‘unique country-civilisation’ that ‘brings together the Russian people and other peoples belonging to the cultural and civilisational community of the Russian world’.

For the foreseeable future, Nato can expect to contend with a Russia that shows no respect for postwar international norms or values and is prepared to use force to achieve its aims.

Nato and Nato member states should therefore commit to confronting the systemic security challenge of Russian imperialism.

Russia cannot be dismissed as a short-term issue that poses a problem solely for Ukraine. Ukraine’s successful national defence is critical to countering any further Russian expansionist ambitions in Europe.

In 2024, Estonia committed to spend 0.25 percent of its GDP annually on military support for Ukraine. Following the Estonian example would be a good starting point as the prospect of a peace agreement looms.

Ultimately, peace and stability in Europe can only be sustained when Russia accepts the loss of its empire and consolidates a clearly-defined set of national interests as a post-imperial country.

Ukraine’s courageous resistance has afforded the West a historic chance to achieve this. The question is whether Ukraine’s allies have the political willingness and resolve to do so. 

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