When EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen first announced a revision of the EU’s Arctic policy in Reykjavík this summer, she framed it against the backdrop of growing Chinese and Russian economic activity in the region.
In a follow-up speech at the Nordic Council of ministers meeting in Stockholm, she stressed that climate change and the rapid retreat of sea ice are key geopolitical drivers in the Arctic.
“Nowhere,” she warned, “are the forces of nature and geopolitics clashing with more intensity than in the Arctic. […] And as the ice retreats, the Arctic is moving ever closer to the centre of global geopolitics. This affects you [the Nordic states] directly, but it impacts us all.”
The geopolitical ripple effects are already becoming evident.
Russia, along with its BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and the Eurasian Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) partners, is leading an initiative to establish a joint research facility on Svalbard as a contribution towards the International Polar Year 2032.
Although an unlikely scenario, it nevertheless illustrates Russia’s efforts in mobilising interests from China, India and other non-Arctic actors to establish or deepen their presence in the region.
Additionally, Russian national posturing around the Northern Sea Route is poised to become a growing headache for Europe and the United States.
If geopolitical weight is shifting anywhere, it is into the Arctic Ocean and its surrounding waters. As Russia and China move assertively, the EU is nowhere to be seen.
Despite the Arctic’s growing strategic importance, the EU’s foothold in this broader maritime domain remains limited.
Only Sweden, Finland, and Denmark are member states within the so-called 'Arctic Eight.' But Greenland — part of the Kingdom of Denmark — is not an EU member, leaving the EU with no direct Arctic coastline.
Finland and Sweden, whose territories stretch north of 66 latitudes, are not among the region’s coastal states.
This geographical limitation highlights a structural weakness, compounded by internal shortcomings: while the EU has the ambition, its lacks the territorial reach to act effectively.
The solution is in deepening existing partnerships.
Iceland and Norway, uniquely positioned in the Arctic and North-Atlantic, are tightly connected to the EU through the EEA agreement.
Greenland, linked to the EU as an overseas country and territory, is an increasingly important partner. Canada and the United Kingdom — while outside the EU — remain linked through Horizon Europe.
Together, these countries share the EU’s security interests and surround the critical Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap, a strategic chokepoint for monitoring Russia’s bastion defence and central to Europe’s own security.
Since adopting its first Arctic policy, the EU has expressed ambition to play a larger role in the region. The current policy states that “the EU’s full engagement in Arctic matters is a geopolitical necessity”.
The EU has delivered meaningful benefits through funding programmes that support Arctic communities (and EU citizens).
Horizon Europe has made the EU the world’s largest funder of Arctic research, providing the EU with the potential to be a major Arctic actor — if it chooses to act.
These funds have supported long-term research efforts, enabling significant advances in our understanding of climate change and its impacts.
However, poor coordination has prevented this scientific leadership from translating into political weight. Better alignment could turn research dominance into real geopolitical influence.
While research leadership is invaluable, it must be coupled with strategic political and security partnerships to avoid becoming an academic exercise.
The EU already has strong foundations for a deeper partnership with Arctic and North-Atlantic states, aligning with national efforts such as Norway’s Arctic Ocean 2050 programme, the country’s largest-ever research initiative, and its contribution to the International Polar Year 2032.
What is missing is not another new framework, but the political will and oversight to knit these initiatives together.
Strengthening collaboration between the EU and the North-Atlantic ocean states would ensure that vital scientific knowledge about shared oceans also enhances Europe’s strategic posture in the Arctic.
A Strategic Ocean Research Partnership — anchoring scientific leadership, advancing shared security interests, and reinforcing European influence — could be key to strengthening the EU's role in Arctic geopolitics.
Now is the time to think boldly about the EU’s engagement in the Arctic.
With the proposals for the next Multiannual Financial Framework and Horizon Europe (FP10) on the table, coinciding with a revision of its Arctic policy, and the European Parliament’s recent request for more strategic engagement in the region, there is a unique window of opportunity to launch ambitious new initiatives.
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Andreas Raspotnik is director of the High North Centre for Business and Governance at the Nord University Business School. Linda Solstrand Dahlberg is head of the Brussels office of The Arctic University of Norway.
Andreas Raspotnik is director of the High North Centre for Business and Governance at the Nord University Business School. Linda Solstrand Dahlberg is head of the Brussels office of The Arctic University of Norway.