The silent nightmare of Balkan depopulation

There is a silent nightmare taking place in the Balkans, with large-scale emigration plus by a low birth rate. Serbia and Albania have lost over half a million people since 2014, Bosnia and Herzegovina is expected to lose half of its manpower by 2050 (more than during the 1990 wars), and Croatia losing more than one million citizens since 1990.

EU membership brings many benefits, ranging from democratisation, the rule of law, the protection of minorities and the freedom of speech. One thing the low-income countries currently in, or aiming to join, the EU had not anticipated was large-scale migration.

The Balkans has been the epicentre of relentless wars and ethnic cleansing — but there is nothing of greater threat than a continually-shrinking population, fuelled by low birth rates, massive emigration and an increasingly unattractive market for foreign investment.

The reasons for leaving?

The Balkans has always been a source of emigration, and that is not new, with many at different times fleeing wars, poverty, or simply in pursuit of better opportunities.

In the 1960s and 1970s, Yugoslav leaders even authorised men to migrate to Germany and Austria as 'Gastarbeiter' [foreign workers]. Mass emigration followed quickly upon the collapse of communism in Albania. For relatively small countries lacking natural resources, migration was often viewed as the best option to relieve the burden of overpopulation.

What has made the current situation a time-bomb is a vastly lower birth rate and absence of a policy by the government to tackle the issue. 

The region has never caught up with a real market economy. Most of the politicians have geared up their economy to enrich themselves or their friends' circle, leaving limited and few chances for the people.

Whilst corruption and nepotism has been a prevailing factor in awarding government jobs, low salaries in many privately-run enterprises was a crucial element in making them unattractive to local or foreign immigrants.

Because of the small size of these countries, they are unable to draw sufficient foreign investments or large companies that can offer a well-paid salary. Despite the fact all the national governments recognise the problem, they have hardly taken any action. Aside from some restraints on healthcare workers, other professions are hard to restrain — and even for healthcare it's only a postponement.

To complicate the situation, virtually everybody can easily travel from the Balkan countries to richer countries such as Austria, Italy, Germany or the Benelux countries.

Equipped with fairly good language knowledge, finding a job and relocating to another country offering better pay or greater opportunities is easy. On the other hand, the Balkans countries are not able to bring enough foreign labour to compensate for those who left, in contrast for example to Poland, which attracted 1.3-1.5 million Ukrainians (before the 2022 war started) as workers in different sectors.

The mass emigration of young, well-educated people deprives the home country of labour, in addition to the problem of the ageing population and sufficient funds to maintain the pension system.

IT, tourism, healthcare

Virtually every sector suffers from emigration, but in particular, these three: since almost every job is related to technology, many of the companies in the region cannot find IT experts.

The salaries offered by Croatian companies are far below what the German companies can offer, apart from social and health security.

Tourism was the second sector to suffer from the mass exodus. Although only at their busiest for three to four months of the year, but crucial for the economic growth of almost all countries in the region, many supermarkets, hotels, restaurants and bars have difficulties finding the necessary staff. 

Until recently, it wasn't difficult for hotels located near the coast to recruit Albanians from the smaller towns to work for three to four months or to employ teenagers or students during their summer holidays. In the tourism sector, however, they are now moving to better countries. The primary destination is Croatia, where the tourist season is longer and the salary is higher.

The third sector is healthcare, while some steps have been taken to curb emigration, but these will most probably only postpone the problem but not solve it.

By 2023, it was reported than 3,500 doctors and nurses had left Albania for Germany. This is a nightmare for Albania. An ageing population, which logically requires more medical care compared to younger people, a large-scale emigration of doctors and fewer young people studying medicine, will inevitably increase the hospital waiting lists.

While Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia lost population after joining the EU, Moldova, Albania and North Macedonia have already lost population before joining the EU.

Can the governments tackle the problem with higher pay, improved healthcare or better services? Why are young people migrating? Can the government do anything to stop them?

Those are some of the most difficult questions to answer. People migrate for a variety of reasons, and pay is certainly one of them, plus the much higher standard of living in western Europe.

Most people leave to settle in a non-corrupt society with improved health and welfare, a rule-based society, without nepotism or corruption. As young people tend to travel more extensively and have the skills required, they often see more opportunities for both themselves and their families in a democratic society. This migration therefore relates a lot to financial and monetary aspects, but also to the hope of a better and more secure future.

For the regional governments, the path forward is to switch from a combination of a stabilitocracy and authoritarian policies to a democratically-organised society.