How Ukraine's energy sector will get through the winter — or not

Last month, the Russians launched a massive missile strike on Ukraine’s energy sector. Power was temporarily cut in multiple regions across Ukraine, and several energy facilities were damaged.

The United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine deemed the attack as a “violat[ion of] international humanitarian law,” and the International Energy Agency has warned that Ukraine’s energy grid may not be ready for the upcoming 2024-2025 winter.

This is not the first time the Russians have targeted Ukraine’s energy sector.

In fact, the Ukrainians have become accustomed to these Russian tactics. In 2015, the Russians launched a cyberattack on Ukraine’s power grid. Many Ukrainians were without power, and this left them vulnerable to the cold winter weather.

The Russians then conducted similar attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector in 2016 and 2021. Now, the Russians have launched missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure throughout the full-scale invasion in an act to deliberately cut off energy supplies to Ukrainian citizens.

In previous years, the Ukrainians overcame these difficulties. But this year, there will be greater complications. Following the recent Russian attacks, many experts are unsure if Ukraine’s severely damaged energy infrastructure will be ready to face the upcoming winter. 

According to The Economist, “Ukraine’s generating capacity was 36 gigawatts of electricity” before Russia’s invasion in February 2022. After the start of the war, Ukraine’s energy production declined due to constant Russian bombardments.

Now, Ukraine is producing 18 gigawatts of electricity.

Optimists vs pessimists

Given this sharp decline, the Ukrainians are working hard to address these energy concerns ahead of the upcoming cold winter. One option is to rebuild their damaged and destroyed energy produces.

Optimists believe that this would produce another two or three gigawatts. Meanwhile, other energy experts are exploring how nuclear energy can help prepare Ukraine for the winter.

However, there are several challenges with these approaches. According to Le Monde, the Ukrainians are “lacking a sufficient number of anti-aircraft systems and ammunition” to defend themselves from Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid.

This makes reconstruction considerably more challenging as Ukraine’s infrastructure is constantly exposed and vulnerable to Russian attacks.

Second, Ukraine requires significant finances to rebuild its energy sector.

Foreigners are hesitant to invest in Ukraine’s energy projects during the ongoing Russian invasion. Risk insurance companies are also slow to assist the Ukrainians.

According to the Kyiv Independent, Ukraine has lost billions of dollars in foreign investments following Russia’s full-scale invasion. This has made rebuilding the country difficult. In addition, the Russians are targeting construction sites, meaning these rebuilding efforts are being thwarted as the buildings are damaged or destroyed.

Third, time is not on Ukraine’s side.

To date, Russia has damaged or destroyed “all of Ukraine’s thermal and hydroelectric power plants.” Ukrainian officials fear that various regions throughout the country will be without electricity for extended periods throughout the day during the winter. This will leave thousands of Ukrainians without heat and electricity.

Despite these challenges, there are several options Ukraine should pursue to enhance its gigawatt capacities ahead of the upcoming winter.

For example, in March 2022, the Ukrainians synchronised their electricity grids with the Continental European Network. This has helped Ukraine “stabilise its electricity system.” Given this success, the Ukrainians should continue to push for greater power grid interconnectivity.

Second, the Ukrainians are exploring decentralised energy systems.

Constructing low-capacity energy sources, such as household batteries and power generators, makes them less susceptible to Russian attacks. According to Ukrinform, construction of such devices could “support the energy system this upcoming winter.” In addition, gas turbines could assist with these issues.

Third, some experts have pushed Ukrainian officials to pursue alternative energy options.

The United States Agency for International Development and the European Union have already provided millions in energy assistance to Ukraine for renewable options.

For example, wind turbines and solar panels have served as additional sources of energy in Ukraine. Pursuing alternative energy would help Ukraine reduce its dependence on coal and other fossil fuels.

In addition, these options are reliable, and they are clean for the environment.

Finally, according to the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, it is harder for Russian missiles and drones to target renewable infrastructure.

In short, Ukraine must work effectively and efficiently to enhance its energy sector. Russia’s ongoing invasion has badly damaged Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Numerous regions of the country have faced power shortages and blackouts, and the Ukrainian government is racing against the clock to provide energy for its citizens ahead of the cold winter.

Pursuing greater power grid interconnectivity, exploring decentralised energy systems, and building alternative energy options, will help provide additional sources of energy to the country. They may not be a permanent solution, but they will be enough to help Ukraine get past the upcoming winter. With many lives at stake, it is well worth the gamble.