The Trump administration’s policies have proven to be a force of disruption in the global political and economic landscape. While many expected Trump’s presidency to embolden far-right, anti-migration populist parties across Europe, the reality is far more complex.
His tenure could both strengthen and inadvertently weaken the forces of anti-migration sentiment on the continent. The shifting global security landscape, trade wars, and the realignment of political alliances he has triggered are shaping the future of European migration politics in contradictory ways.
Despite early fears that Trump’s presidency would embolden Europe’s far-right movements, an unexpected shift appears to be underway.
Centrist and pro-European parties are gaining ground, and EU approval ratings among European citizens have reached record highs. Populations in countries that once flirted with populist leaders are showing renewed trust in moderate governance.
In Canada, for instance, the Liberal Party, previously trailing the Conservatives, regained support after Trump’s election, as his policies alienated Canadian voters. A similar dynamic is emerging in Europe, where the chaotic nature of Trump’s administration is causing many to reconsider the viability of far-right populist leadership.
Two key factors are contributing to this realignment. First, the changing global security landscape. Trump’s foreign policy decisions - including alienating Nato allies and cosying up to authoritarian leaders - have amplified Europe’s sense of geopolitical vulnerability. Combined with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, his unpredictable stance on alliances has led many Europeans to prioritise stability over populist posturing.
Second, Trump’s direct impact on European trade. His imposition of tariffs on EU goods has angered business leaders and policymakers alike. While populists had long campaigned against the European Union, Trump’s actions are making EU membership more appealing. Confronted with external economic threats, many Europeans are rediscovering the value of collective strength over nationalist isolation.
In this context, once a dominant political discourse issue, migration may take a backseat, as national security and economic resilience become more urgent. Indeed, polls across several European countries show that the importance people attach to the topic of migration and asylum is rapidly dropping.
Trump’s protectionist economic policies - especially his aggressive use of tariffs - are reshaping the global economic order. Trade wars with major economies are sparking global uncertainty, spooking stock markets, and pushing up inflation. Fears of a worldwide recession are mounting, and the cost of living is becoming a central political issue.
Far-right leaders in Europe have long exploited economic anxiety by scapegoating migrants, linking financial strain to immigration. Trump’s trade wars could amplify this narrative, providing fresh momentum to anti-migration movements, especially in countries already struggling with economic discontent.
Yet Trump’s economic approach contains a core contradiction. While trade tariffs aim to revitalise domestic industry, such protectionism collides with anti-migration policies. Ageing societies like the US face deep labour shortages, and revitalised industries will inevitably require more workers, many of whom will have to come from abroad.
Instead of creating jobs in migrants' countries of origin to reduce the economic need to migrate, this strategy may ironically increase demand for migrant labour in destination countries. European economies face the same dilemma, underscoring the challenge of reconciling industrial renewal with restrictive migration agendas.
In short, rather than curbing migration, Trump’s policies may highlight just how essential it is.
The long-term impact of Trump’s presidency on European migration policy remains uncertain. But his example serves as a cautionary tale. While populist rhetoric can be a powerful political tool, it often fails to translate into effective governance.
The chaos and contradictions of Trump’s leadership have made many European voters wary of embracing similar figures - and reinforced the appeal of stability, moderation, and global cooperation.
Probably quite contrary to his intentions, it seems that Trump, rather than a boost, might be a big blow to some of the far-right populist parties, which usually campaign on anti-migration agendas.
At the same time, the populist wave is far from extinguished. Economic instability and social unrest can still serve as fuel for anti-migration sentiment. But migration is also a necessity. Many sectors across Europe rely on foreign labour, and demographic decline is a growing concern. Countries that have previously embraced hardline anti-migration policies have been forced to rethink their positions out of economic necessity.
If centrist leaders can harness this moment - by offering pragmatic responses to economic and geopolitical challenges - they may succeed in also steering migration debates away from fear and toward reasoned, evidence-based policymaking.
Bram Frouws is the director of the Mixed Migration Centre (MMC)
Bram Frouws is the director of the Mixed Migration Centre (MMC)