Friday

1st Jul 2022

If Russia collapses — which states will break away?

Increasingly, analysts — both inside and outside of Russia — are considering the possibility of the Russian Federation's collapse into a series of independent states. Who are the most likely candidates for secession in Russia's south, east, and centre?

Column

China's support for Russia challenges Europe's Peace Order

China's soft support to Russia is deeply troubling for Europe. Here is the EU's biggest trading partner signalling that it is on the side of Russia, its aggression, and its challenge to the post-war international order.

Sturgeon's 2023 'referendum' gamble for Scotland

The independence campaign launch featured a new Scottish government report, comparing the UK's economic and social record with those of other European states — and arguing, unsurprisingly, that Scotland should be independent as a result.

News in Brief

  1. EU announces trade deal with New Zealand
  2. Russia threatens Norway over goods transit
  3. Russia urges Nato not to build bases in Sweden, Finland
  4. New president for European Committee of the Regions
  5. Gas flows from Spain to Morocco, after Western Sahara row
  6. BioNTech, Pfizer test 'universal' coronavirus vaccine
  7. UK sanctions second-richest Russian businessman
  8. Hungary permits emergency supervision of energy firms

Column

One rubicon after another

We realise that we are living in one of those key moments in history, with events unfolding exactly the way Swiss art historian Jacob Burckhardt describes them: a sudden crisis, rushing everything into overdrive.

The euro — who's next?

Bulgaria's target date for joining the eurozone, 1 January 2024, seems elusive. The collapse of Kiril Petkov's government, likely fresh elections, with populists trying to score cheap points against the 'diktat of the eurocrats', might well delay accession.

Expect Czech EU presidency to downgrade V4 priorities

The Czech Republic is already in the throes of an extremely difficult period — several waves of Covid, high inflation, energy fears, an influx of Ukrainian refugees and a Prague corruption scandal. Now it has the EU presidency.

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How to enhance EU cybersecurity

The Hungarian hacking allowed Russian intelligence to read 'over the shoulder' of an EU member state for an extended period of time. The difficulty for the EU is that it's not one nation, but a combination of 27 cybersecurity policies.

Competing options for EU enlargement

We now have French president Emmanuel Macron's "European Political Community", European Council president Charles Michel's "European Geopolitical Community", and former Italian PM Enrico Letta's "European Confederation" — among others.

A chance for peace in Yemen?

I want to reaffirm the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council and government are sincerely seeking to end the war, but there is a stubborn party, that is afraid of the consequences of peace, and that is the Iranian-backed Houthi militia.

Ukraine: An 'arsenal of democracy' in Europe

Ukraine's membership in the EU would reinvigorate Europe's tired institutions, address the Union's democratic deficit, and provide young Europeans with a model of democracy in action.

Romania — latest EU hotspot in backlash against LGBT rights

Romania isn't the only country portraying lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) people as a threat to children. From Poland and Hungary in EU, to reactionary movements around the world are prohibiting portrayals of LGBT people and families in schools.

How industry watered-down new EU supply chain rules

The Commission fell hook, line, and sinker for the arguments of big business on the corporate due diligence directive — conflating rules and regulations with so-called 'red tape' and rebranding regulations as 'burdens' on business which should be scrapped.

The Treaty of Amsterdam — 25 years on

Twenty-five years after the conclusion of the Treaty of Amsterdam in 1997, the European Union is poised to overcome its notorious 'democratic deficit'.

Sánchez takes risk by snubbing Catalans

At what point will Catalonia's Republican Left decide enough is enough? The separatists have kept Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez in power for two-and-a-half years, but they have little to show for it.

The last thing Europe needs is another war on its doorstep

If the international community cannot fulfil its promises in Bosnia — given it's in the very heart of Europe, the leverage the EU and Nato possess, and the massive money invested — prospects for international state-building elsewhere are extremely grim.

Column

It is political parties that are polarising, not citizens

Political parties are polarising, but society is not. Many citizens, in fact, remain where they once were — right in the middle of the political spectrum. Polarisation has, in short, become a political strategy.

Putin forgot to ask Russian people's permission for Ukraine

Squeezing out lawful forms of protest has pushed Russians into undertaking more radical actions as part of a growing underground movement— one form has been graffiti or destruction of the 'Z' symbol, another is arson attacks against military conscription centres.

Southern Europe needs a 'V4' equivalent

The Visegrád Group, the New Hanseatic League, the Benelux or the Nordics have frequently worked together — however, southern European member states have frequently found themselves in loose cooperation or, worse, competition.

Letter

Right of Reply: Hungarian government

The government in Budapest responds to EUobserver opinion piece "Are Orban's Covid powers now the 'new normal' in Hungary?"

When Reagan met Gorbachev — a history lesson for Putin

Neither Reagan nor Gorbachev achieved their goal at the famous Reykjavik summit of 1986. Despite that fact there are lessons that current leaders — particularly Vladimir Putin — could adopt from these two iconic leaders.

Orbán's overtures to Moscow are distasteful and detrimental

Some Western European politicians are reviving the chimera of a negotiated settlement. None of this makes the current, half-hearted approach towards sanctioning Russia look better — nor does it shed any favourable light on the cravenness of Hungary's current government.

Column

The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth is back

Ukraine is finally understood — and hopefully Belarus will be soon too — as a self-standing society and state with close links to its EU neighbours, rather being relegated to Russia's backyard.

Brexit hostility to Good Friday Agreement is damaging UK in US

Democratic Unionist MPs could affirm unequivocally they support the Good Friday Agreement, with no return of a border with physical controls on movement of people, goods or agricultural produce within the island of Ireland — but they won't.

Are Orban's Covid powers now the 'new normal' in Hungary?

As the world continues to seek productive ways to provide assistance to the beleaguered citizens of Ukraine, the Hungarian government is now using the humanitarian crisis to further its own authoritarian ambitions.