Sunday

3rd Dec 2023

Opinion

Corbyn victory could split main UK parties

  • Corbyn at anti-war protest outside UK parliament last year (Photo: Garry Knight)

The Labour leadership election has provoked much speculation and soothsaying, so allow me to indulge in a little more: the election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader will be the next step in the fragmentation of both main UK parties.

The first reason is that a Corbyn victory could lead to all-out civil war in the Labour Party.

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Become an expert on Europe

Get instant access to all articles — and 20 years of archives. 14-day free trial.

... or subscribe as a group

The second is that without an effective opposition, particularly in the period of time leading up to the EU referendum, the Conservatives will turn on themselves.

Recently, David Miliband wrote an article in The Guardian warning against a repeat of the Labour infighting of the past, most notably in the early 1980s.

Miliband argued: “Given the collapse of the Lib Dems, the stakes now are very high indeed, not just for Labour but for the country. Get it wrong, and Britain could become a multi-party democracy with only one party - the Conservative party - that can win parliamentary majorities.”

“The Corbyn programme looks backwards … There is nothing defiant or desirable about unworkable policies and undeliverable promises. There is only defeat,” Miliband added.

I would argue that a Corbyn victory could lead to a multi-party democracy without a main party.

The manoeuvring in Labour, however, has already started. A number of Labour MPs have set up the “Labour for the Common Good Group” which could well form the main opposition to Corbyn within the Party.

There have allegedly been attempts to shut down the leadership contest by Lord Mandelson. Other senior Labour figures, including Gordon Brown and Tony Blair, have been making speeches with increasing frequency, pleading with party members to vote for the more centrist candidates.

Whatever happens, and whoever becomes leader, the unity of the Labour Party is uncertain and as a result, so is its ability to provide credible opposition to the government. The SNP and the decimated Liberal Democrats will not be able to fill the void.

A split in Labour cannot be ruled out, nor a leadership coup.

Danger lurks for Cameron

The election of Corbyn as leader of the opposition also presents a danger for David Cameron. As The Economist pointed out, when governments appear to be without effective rivals or pressure from other parties, they are prone to internal strife.

Consider, for example, the destructive rivalry between Blairites and Brownites during New Labour’s years in power when they had large parliamentary majorities.

The forces that brought down Margaret Thatcher, despite the fact that she won three consecutive general elections, were part of a split that has dogged the party ever since.

With this in mind and with the EU referendum due within two years, when the opposition may well be weak, eurosceptics will become increasingly vocal.

Opponents of EU membership are certain to be better organised this time around, compared to 1975, and have a larger public profile.

Ukip’s divisive leader, Nigel Farage, is sure to exert pressure on the Tory leadership.

Farage said recently that eurosceptics should "get off their backsides" and challenge the prime minister's "so-called renegotiation" of EU powers.

He added on Friday (4 September), while launching his EU referendum campaign: "If it wasn't for Ukip, we wouldn't be having a referendum."

He also said his faith in Tory eurosceptics had been destroyed during the Maastricht debates of the 1990s.

Referendum glue to keep Tories together?

Cameron’s prime objective in calling the referendum is to unify the Conservative Party.

Votes in referendums, however, overwhelmingly go in favour of the status quo. Failure to win will not pacify those who want change, meaning this strategy is only a temporary one. Britain voted on EU membership in 1975 and 67 percent chose to stay in what was then the European Community.

This clear victory for European membership was not enough to prevent the issue being continually debated in Britain, and from the late 1980s, increasingly hysterically within the Tory Party.

What is sure to be a narrower margin in the forthcoming referendum, will not quell the disquiet amongst Cameron’s ranks. The Conservatives are clearly split on Europe and the current migrant crisis is making this ever more toxic.

When Britain votes to stay in the EU, as it probably will do, the Tories’ differences will become ever more pronounced.

Does this sound far-fetched? One thing that the rise of Corbyn certainly seems to have encouraged is hyperbole.

The election of Corbyn himself may be enough to split Labour.

The increased space for squabbling over Europe for the Tories, under pressure from Ukip, and an inconclusive referendum may be enough to split the Conservatives.

Robert Ledger is an independent political researcher working in London

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this opinion piece are the author's, not those of EUobserver.

UK referendum rules could 'hobble' government

Preventing ministers from carrying out EU-related business in the run-up to the UK’s EU referendum could "hobble" the government, a top British official says.

Dubai's COP28 — a view from the ground

Discussion of the biggest existential threat humanity has ever faced is barely mentioned on billboards or signage in Dubai — yet visitors are made aware quite quickly that t world rugby sevens tournament is imminent.

'Pay or okay?' — Facebook & Instagram vs the EU

Since last week, Mark Zuckerberg's Meta corporation is forcing its European users to either accept their intrusive privacy practices — or pay €156 per year to access Facebook and Instagram without tracking advertising.

My experience trying to negotiate with Uber

After working with people in unusual employment situations for a decade, I thought I had seen it all as a union organiser. Then I began dealing with Uber.

Latest News

  1. Israel's EU ambassador: 'No clean way to do this operation'
  2. Brussels denies having no 'concern' on Spain's amnesty law
  3. Dubai's COP28 — a view from the ground
  4. Germany moves to criminalise NGO search-and-rescue missions
  5. Israel recalls ambassador to Spain in new diplomatic spat
  6. Migrant return bill 'obstructed' as EU states mull new position
  7. Paris and Berlin key to including rape in gender-violence directive
  8. What are the big money debates at COP28 UN climate summit?

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Nordic Council of MinistersArtist Jessie Kleemann at Nordic pavilion during UN climate summit COP28
  2. Nordic Council of MinistersCOP28: Gathering Nordic and global experts to put food and health on the agenda
  3. Friedrich Naumann FoundationPoems of Liberty – Call for Submission “Human Rights in Inhume War”: 250€ honorary fee for selected poems
  4. World BankWorld Bank report: How to create a future where the rewards of technology benefit all levels of society?
  5. Georgia Ministry of Foreign AffairsThis autumn Europalia arts festival is all about GEORGIA!
  6. UNOPSFostering health system resilience in fragile and conflict-affected countries

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. European Citizen's InitiativeThe European Commission launches the ‘ImagineEU’ competition for secondary school students in the EU.
  2. Nordic Council of MinistersThe Nordic Region is stepping up its efforts to reduce food waste
  3. UNOPSUNOPS begins works under EU-funded project to repair schools in Ukraine
  4. Georgia Ministry of Foreign AffairsGeorgia effectively prevents sanctions evasion against Russia – confirm EU, UK, USA
  5. Nordic Council of MinistersGlobal interest in the new Nordic Nutrition Recommendations – here are the speakers for the launch
  6. Nordic Council of Ministers20 June: Launch of the new Nordic Nutrition Recommendations

Join EUobserver

Support quality EU news

Join us