Sunday

26th Mar 2023

Opinion

Orbán leaves EPP group - the beginning of a long endgame

  • Outsmarting Viktor Orbán and forcing him to leave EPP is indeed an important development - but not a game-changer in the short-term (Photo: Council of the European Union)

The saga between the centre-right political family the European People's Party (EPP) and Hungary's Fidesz is one of the most captivating soap operas EU politics ever produced.

This season's finale may now be in touching distance, but it will not fundamentally change the ways how the EU addresses Hungary's onslaught on European values.

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Become an expert on Europe

Get instant access to all articles — and 20 years of archives. 14-day free trial.

... or subscribe as a group

On Wednesday (3 March), the political group of the European People's Party in the European Parliament passed - with an 84-percent majority - the amendment of its rules of procedure that may enable the suspension of whole delegation's membership, and as such those of the Hungarian governing party Fidesz as well.

In response, prime minister and party chairman Viktor Orbán put his money where his mouth was and, in compliance with his Sunday threat, he withdraw the Fidesz delegation from the EPP Group.

This may be a huge relief for the EPP caucus in the European Parliament, as it allows keeping further decisions on Fidesz on technical level.

Orbán did not waste a single word in his divorce letter about leaving the party family EPP - where Fidesz' membership has been already suspended for two years.

However, leaving the group on its own constitutes a breach of the EPP party statutes, as EPP members are obliged join the EPP group with their MEPs.

Orbán's move provoked a quick response by the EPP, the party family issuing a statement on triggering the exclusion of Fidesz due to the violation of the statues on the same day.

Maintaining the EPP membership of Fidesz without participating in the work of the parliamentary group would not be sustainable option anyhow, as it would deprive Fidesz MEPs of a large chunk of influence within the European Parliament.

Hence, whether Fidesz leaves the party family on its own in the near future, or is expelled at the next potential in-person meeting of EPP, appears to be only a question of time and mere formality.

However, the short-term consequences of the divorce are far less substantial than one would expect, after two years of intense political drama between the parties.

Hungary's democratic backsliding could have evolved, practically unopposed, more than a decade because EU institutions were neither able nor willing to address authoritarian developments in the country in a proper way.

EPP and Germany as 'enablers'

In this setup, the European People's Party was one of the key autocracy enablers that shielded Orbán from potential negative repercussion to his policies. However, it was far from being the only one.

Aside from the EPP, Hungary was also protected at a member states' level by key bilateral partners; and, as such, not only by illiberal fellows like Poland, Bulgaria or recently Slovenia - but most importantly also by Germany.

And these bilateral relations—which determine political dynamics in the EU Council—will not change overnight simply because Fidesz is no longer member in the EPP political group.

Hence, outsmarting Orbán and forcing him to leave EPP is indeed an important development, but not a game-changer in short term. It will only slowly alter the European political environment to Orbán's detriment.

It is a matter of fact that changes in the party-political affiliation of Fidesz will not have significant impact on the two most important actual issues with Hungary: the ongoing Article 7 procedure and the implementation of the rule of law conditionality regulation.

In the first case, the decision is in the hands of national governments in the council. And governments often prioritise geopolitical considerations and good neighbourhood relations in their decision-making, over European party politics.

One cannot even expect a fundamental U-turn in the German-Hungarian bilateral relations before the German federal elections in September, although in light of the 84 percent support to the amendment of the EPP group's rules-of-procedure, apparently many German CDU/CSU MEPs voted against the Hungarian party in this sensitive case.

Hence a successful conclusion of the ongoing Article 7.1 procedure and the determination that there is a "a risk of serious breach" of EU values in Hungary is still out of reach.

Poland has Orban's back

Sanctions under Article 7.2 of the EU treaty require unanimity, meaning that as long as Hungary and Poland safeguard each other mutually, there is no chance to introduce punitive measures.

The practical implementation of rule of law conditionality regulation will depend on the ruling of the EU Court of Justice on the regulation's compatibility with EU law.

As this is a legal procedure of an independent court, party political dynamics do not influence it either.

Hungary's and Poland's merits in the case are extremely weak, making it obvious that both countries only play for time.

However, there is no sign that the EU Commission would be ready to disregard the December summit conclusion to which it signed on, and decouple the regulation's implementation from the court case. That simply would not be the commission's style.

Nevertheless, the commission is still the only EU institution where the change in the party-political affiliation of Fidesz could have a meaningful impact.

In comparison to Poland, the commission always handled Hungary with kid gloves.

Among the various drivers behind this behaviour, party-political affiliation has been certainly one.

Berlaymont winds of change?

However, there are certain signs that winds are changing in the Berlaymont with regard to Hungary.

In February, the commission opened the sanction mechanism (Art. 260 TFEU) against Budapest due to the non-implementation of ECJ's ruling in the NGO law case, a rather conflict-loaded move seldom used by the Commission in infringement procedures.

In the same month the commission allegedly demanded an amendment of Hungarian public procurement law and tendering praxis due to the widespread, systemic corruption and threatened with suspending Next Generation EU payments to Hungary.

Such commission initiatives may indeed become more frequent if EPP commissioners - and first-and-foremost Ursula von der Leyen - can disregard internal EPP political considerations with regard to Hungary.

However, whether there will be both a critical mass of new cases, and political appetite for more confrontation, apart from the commission which could tip the balance of EU politics against Orbán in the run-up to the 2022 elections, is highly questionable.

Author bio

Daniel Hegedüs is fellow for central Europe at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this opinion piece are the author's, not those of EUobserver.

Analysis

Relief in EPP group, as Orbán's party finally leaves

The debate over Fidesz had become an unbearable political burden on EPP - but it also represented a core dilemma for many centre-right, mainstream parties struggling to deal with their populist challengers.

Letter

An open letter to the EPP on end of Hungary's press freedom

I hate to break it to you, but excuses have run out. You have to look at the images of sobbing journalists in Index's newsroom, and shoulder part of the blame. Your silence, your continued procrastination led to this.

New push to kick Orban's party out of centre-right EPP

Member parties from the largest European political family have called for the expulsion of their Hungarian partner - again. This time, two prime ministers joined, but so far the heavyweights have again stayed away.

Dear EPP: Please, please expel Orban

As a member of Orbán's opposition in Hungary and Renew in parliament, I am here to remind you whom you are choosing between. Is your political home in the pro-European centre or in Orbán's camp of far-right authoritarian nativists?

Orbán and von der Leyen to tussle on EU recovery funds

Viktor Orbán has one key card in his hands: Hungary has still not approved the legislation necessary for the EU Commission to raise money on the markets. However, it will be difficult to hold out on this.

Editorial

Okay, alright, AI might be useful after all

Large Language Models could give the powers trained data-journalists wield, to regular boring journalists like me — who don't know how to use Python. And that makes me tremendously excited, to be honest.

How much can we trust Russian opinion polls on the war?

The lack of Russian opposition to the Russo-Ukrainian War is puzzling. The war is going nowhere, Russian casualties are staggering, the economy is in trouble, and living standards are declining, and yet polls indicate that most Russians support the war.

Latest News

  1. EU's new critical raw materials act could be a recipe for conflict
  2. Okay, alright, AI might be useful after all
  3. Von der Leyen pledges to help return Ukrainian children
  4. EU leaders agree 1m artillery shells for Ukraine
  5. Polish abortion rights activist vows to appeal case
  6. How German business interests have shaped EU climate agenda
  7. The EU-Turkey migration deal is dead on arrival at this summit
  8. Sweden worried by EU visa-free deal with Venezuela

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Nordic Council of MinistersNordic and Baltic ways to prevent gender-based violence
  2. Nordic Council of MinistersCSW67: Economic gender equality now! Nordic ways to close the pension gap
  3. Nordic Council of MinistersCSW67: Pushing back the push-back - Nordic solutions to online gender-based violence
  4. Nordic Council of MinistersCSW67: The Nordics are ready to push for gender equality
  5. Promote UkraineInvitation to the National Demonstration in solidarity with Ukraine on 25.02.2023
  6. Azerbaijan Embassy9th Southern Gas Corridor Advisory Council Ministerial Meeting and 1st Green Energy Advisory Council Ministerial Meeting

Join EUobserver

Support quality EU news

Join us