As the US and Russia discuss ways to end the worst conflict on the European continent since World War II, EU ambassador to Kyiv Katarína Mathernová has cautioned against sidelining Europe and Ukraine from future negotiations.
“To make any peace just and sustainable, it cannot happen without Europe,” Mathernová told EUobserver ahead of the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
With the war entering its fourth year, Ukraine and its European allies are increasingly concerned that peace talks — if shaped without their input — may come at the price of a weak deal that will not prevent Russia from attacking Ukraine again in future.
Speaking from her office at the EU delegation on Volodymyrska Street in Kyiv, the EU diplomat of Slovak origin argued that Ukraine and Europe must be part of any peace talks, given expectations of providing future security guarantees for the country.
“How the war in Ukraine will end will determine European post-war security architecture for the years to come,” Mathernová said.
She also stressed the EU’s unprecedented support for Kyiv over the past year, totalling €134bn, including €48.8bn in military assistance, according to figures provided by the EU delegation in Ukraine.
But money doesn't automatically transform into military capabilities — and questions arise should the US pull military aid from Ukraine.
Last week’s high-level US-Russia discussions in Saudi Arabia notably excluded Ukraine and European representatives, in a sign of what may be the format for future talks.
But Mathernová warned that history risks repeating itself.
She referred to the 1938 Munich Agreement, where European powers made a deal that ended up failing to stop the war.
At the time, Germany, Italy, the UK, and France signed an agreement forcing Czechoslovakia to cede the Sudetenland to Nazi Germany in a failed bid to avoid further conflict. The deal, made without Czechoslovakia, became a symbol of appeasement that emboldened Adolf Hitler.
“It was about us, without us,” Mathernová noted, drawing parallels to the current situation.
“This historical lesson is one of the reasons why I think that both Ukraine and Europe need to be at the [negotiation] table,” she said, describing an inclusive approach as “prudent” and “smart” to avoid another ‘about us without us’ moment.
Alarm bells rang in both Kyiv and Brussels earlier this month when US president Donald Trump broke the diplomatic isolation of Russia by holding a 90-minute phone call with president Vladimir Putin.
The call marked a stark departure from the previous US administration and Nato’s long-standing position: “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.”
But the US position had already been shifting for some time. Ahead of official talks in Saudi Arabia this week, behind-the-scenes meetings between US and Russian officials have also taken place in Switzerland in recent months, according to Reuters. Many details are still unclear, including whether Ukrainians joined those talks.
“Discussions and speculation about ceasefires and potential elections brought a lot of the politics back, creating societal tensions”
Meanwhile, signs of growing tensions between Washington and Kyiv became noticeable last week when no joint press conference followed talks between Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky.
Kellogg's visit came amid negotiations over a trade deal between Ukraine and the US, with rare-earth minerals at its core — which Zelensky initially rejected.
And it also follows a tirade of furious remarks by Trump, testing US-Ukraine relations and transatlantic bonds further.
Earlier this week, the US president called Zelesnky a dictator, accusing him of refusing to hold elections.
Trump also blamed Ukraine for starting the war, although, in fact, it was Russia that initiated the conflict—not three years ago, but 11 years ago — when its armed forces seized part of Ukrainian territory, the Crimean peninsula.
But these diplomatic rifts come after three years of a devastating war that extends far beyond the battlefield, with relentless air attacks and sleepless nights taking a toll on civilians and soldiers alike.
“Discussions and speculation about ceasefires and potential elections brought a lot of the politics back, creating societal tensions,” said Mathernová.
Ukraine is also struggling with the exhaustion and fatigue typical of a prolonged conflict. And Russia has made “small” but “steady” advances on the front lines over the past year, which is also a factor, the EU envoy noted.
“The prospect of EU’s membership is an important element for the country to keep going”
Recent statements from both Washington and Moscow downplaying Europe’s involvement in peace talks have raised difficult questions about Europe’s geopolitical influence — at a time when the EU27 struggles to send a united message.
Two crisis summits about the future of Ukraine and Europe’s security took place last week in Paris with EU leaders, the Nato chief, the Canadians, and the UK, showing clear divisions about the next steps.
When asked about her biggest concern, Mathernová warned of the risk of "collectively letting Ukraine down".
The Slovak-born diplomat was officially appointed as the EU envoy to war-torn Ukraine in September 2023. But her ties with the region date back to her time in Brussels, where she served in the European Commission’s department for neighbourhood and enlargement negotiations.
After Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine applied for EU membership. Despite Russian-friendly Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán's opposition, EU leaders decided to start accession talks with Ukraine in December 2023.
When asked if Ukraine could join the 27-nation bloc in 2030, a date that was raised by former EU council president Charles Michel, Mathernová said that the end of the decade mark was not “unrealistic”.
“If there is a just and sustainable peace and they continue with the reforms I think that could happen,” Mathernová said.
She noted that Europe today is navigating a very different geopolitical landscape than a decade ago, with Ukraine’s pace of reform accelerating despite the ongoing conflict.
“They have written the playbook on how to reform in the times of war,” she said, highlighting the unity Ukraine has demonstrated in its pursuit of EU integration.
The EU diplomat also pointed out that once actual peace talks begin, attention will inevitably shift to the EU's membership process, which, despite being bureaucratic and lengthy, remains an essential motivating force for Ukraine.
“The prospect of EU membership is an important element for the country to keep going,” she said. “This is what gives them hope, this is what gives them perspective — and it has for the last three years”.
Elena is EUobserver's editor-in-chief. She is from Spain and has studied journalism and new media in Spanish and Belgian universities. Previously she worked on European affairs at VoteWatch Europe and the Spanish news agency EFE.
Elena is EUobserver's editor-in-chief. She is from Spain and has studied journalism and new media in Spanish and Belgian universities. Previously she worked on European affairs at VoteWatch Europe and the Spanish news agency EFE.