The Netherlands will be the first EU member state to vote in the European election on Thursday (6 June), with most other countries heading to the ballot on Sunday.
The Dutch exit polls, appearing at 9pm, could thus drive speculation about the EU-wide results, in particular about the performance of the far-right.
As in 2019, the Dutch head to the ballot boxes early, due to a long-standing tradition of voting on Wednesdays — plus strong opposition to Sunday votes among a small but influential group of ultra-orthodox protestants in the Netherlands.
Though not exactly a US-style “Bellwether state” (where political analysts use early results from specific states to predict the overall winner of the presidential election), the Dutch exit polls might provide some early insights into the European Parliament's future composition.
Five years ago, the Dutch results were somewhat indicative of later developments. Social democrats came out on top, bolstering then lead-candidate Frans Timmermans’ ultimately failed bid for the commission presidency. Still, Timmermans ended up playing a leading role as the commissioner in charge of the Green Deal.
This time around, however, Dutch politics has been gripped by the rise of far-right forces, with Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV), projected to rocket from one to nine MEPs, while a combined list of the Greens and social democrats (GL-PvdA) coming second with eight, according to the latest polls.
A Wilders’ victory could embolden allies from the Identity and Democracy group (ID) like National Rally (RN) in France, and Flemish Interest (VB) in Flanders, who will seize on a positive result to fire-up voters in their countries still to go to the polls.
Moreover, the Dutch results could prove interesting for European liberals as well. Liberal party group Renew Europe could have as many as three separate member parties in the Netherlands, with the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) currently polling at five seats, and Democrats ‘66 (D66) polling at two, and potentially the pan-European Volt, who also could end up joining the European Greens instead.
A strong performance of the more conservative-liberal VVD, outgoing prime minister Mark Rutte’s party, could improve the party’s position within Renew. Divisions among the liberals emerged when the VVD joined the far-right PVV in forming a government in May, with French Renew leader Valérie Hayer calling for the VVD’s expulsion.
For the centre-right Christian democrat European People’s Party (EPP), the Dutch vote also implies further fragmentation. The newly emerged New Social Contract (NSC) and Farmer Citizen Movement (BBB), both partner in the far-right coalition in The Hague, want to apply for EPP membership, drawing objections of the CDA, the traditional Dutch Christian democrat force.
Notwithstanding such pan-European trends, in the end the Dutch campaign has been strongly marked by domestic politics, in particular by the newly formed far-right government coalition.
Both the PVV and GL-PvdA have tried to cast the election as a two horse-race between their national leaders.
Wilders’ has sought to turn the election into a vote of approval of ‘his’ new government, posting on x.com that Timmermans, who now leads GL-PvdA in the Dutch parliament, must “not become the biggest”.
Greens and socialists are hoping for a moral victory as well, after Timmermans failed to become prime minister after the national elections in November, and have urged voters to prevent a PVV election win.
But with the national coalition talks dominating Dutch politics in the past months, voter turnout could prove disappointing, according to political scientist Simon Otjes, particularly without a recognisable senior political figurehead like Timmermans.
“Few people are now concerned with the European elections,” Otjes told the EUobserver, adding that this was evident from polling. In EU election projections, the Green-socialists are nearly tied with the far-right PVV for the EU elections, whereas in national election surveys, the PVV is far ahead.
Consequently, low turnout could even benefit progressives, he argued, with PVV voters less interested in European politics.
However, according to Otjes, most interesting was the ever-increasing fragmentation of Dutch politics, with up to six different parties hovering around the three percent voting threshold.
“The Netherlands is turning into the seven dwarfs,” he observed, adding that this could benefit the largest parties significantly. “If smaller parties fail to reach the threshold, all those remainder seats will end up with GL-PvdA and the PVV.”
This article was corrected to accurately reflect Volt's European affiliation, which will be determined after the elections.
Piet Ruig is a Brussels-based journalist who previously worked for the Dutch public broadcaster VPRO.
Piet Ruig is a Brussels-based journalist who previously worked for the Dutch public broadcaster VPRO.