War, peace, and money - Hungary is bracing for its most heated EP election campaign yet

Like many Hungarians, 25-year-old Dániel feels it is his duty to vote in every election. But like others in his generation, he wonders whether his vote on 9 June will have any impact on the political future of the country that has been ruled by Viktor Orbán and his conservative Fidesz party for more than half his life.

"I have no illusions. I know that the chances of my vote having any effect are very small, partly because I am not wasting it on a mainstream party. But democracy only makes sense if as many of us as possible participate," he adds.

On 9 June, Hungarians will have the chance to exercise their voting rights in two elections. They will choose their mayors and members of local councils in the municipal elections, and also go to the polls in the European Parliament elections.

While Hungarian society does not traditionally regard European elections as a game changer, many voters feel that the time has come to channel their anger and disillusionment at a government whose critics say has turned its back on democratic norms.

"I will vote against Fidesz in June because they are corrupt and represent the aims of the Russians, Chinese and other autocrats, as well as Donald Trump and the international far right. All this is against the interests of Hungary, the European Union and Nato. I fear that under Fidesz, the possibility of Hungary being shown the door in these alliances is increasing," says Tamás, also a resident of Budapest. 

The Hungarian capital recently welcomed Chinese president Xi Jinping, hosted the meeting of US Republicans and their European allies CPAC Hungary, and the Holocaust-denying ex-president of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who visited the city for a lecture at the Ludovika University of Public Service. This makes many voters like Tamás feel increasingly uneasy. 

End to the status quo

There are other reasons why many believe that this time the stakes are higher than in previous elections.

While Fidesz and its junior coalition partner, the Christian Democratic Party (KDNP) have held 13 of Hungary’s 21 seats in the European Parliament for the last four terms, the sudden appearance of newcomer Péter Magyar and his TISZA Party might change the status quo. 

Magyar, a former member of the Fidesz elite, has shaken up the country's political life. Not only does he plan to cause serious trouble for the government in the European Parliament, but his candidates are also standing in local elections. In the past month, he has been touring the country, attracting considerable crowds even in remote villages. 

Pollster Medián recently put the support of the party leader – who is first on the European Parliament list but has no intention of going to Brussels – at 29 percent among decided voters. This makes TISZA the strongest opposition party on the Hungarian political scene, leaving rivals such as liberal Momentum and far-right Our Homeland (MI Hazánk) behind. 

Most political analysts agree that Péter Magyar's emergence will be disastrous for the smaller opposition parties, but it remains to be seen whether he has the strength to shake the government itself.

Magyar sees himself as a challenger to prime minister Viktor Orbán, but polls show that support for Fidesz remains at a hefty 48 percent.

Spend more, reach higher

This is also due to the fact that Orbán's government — shaken by the pardon scandal that led to the resignation of president Katalin Novák — is spending plenty of time and money on the election campaign.

According to estimates by Budapest-based think tank Political Capital, Fidesz and its proxies have spent an unprecedented amount of money on social media adverts, exceeding 1 billion forints (more than €2.5m) since the beginning of the year.

"What we see is that there is an incredible asymmetry in the online space. Fidesz spends three times as much as all the other opposition parties combined on Facebook and Google," says Péter Krekó, director of Political Capital. 

In contrast, Péter Magyar's TISZA party has spent nothing on social media campaigns.

"This is a huge challenge for the system, which is based on the idea that the more infrastructure, people and money you have, the more votes you get," Krekó adds. 

The government is also investing heavily in its "offline" campaign, especially on billboards. While previous billboards showed European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen surrounded by opposition party leaders dubbed "servants of Brussels", the new ads are simpler. The latest message features the words "Stop War" with silhouettes of the opposition candidates and Hungarian-born billionaire and long-time bogeyman of the Hungarian government, George Soros. In contrast, another one, with the word “peace” features Orbán himself.

War and peace

Orbán is also touring the countryside, albeit his campaign events are more subdued and closed to the press. He kicked off the campaign in a barn in rural Hungary, surrounded by piles of wheat where he asked farmers to put a gun in his hand. 

“I won't be afraid to pull it out, I'll shoot anything that moves, I'll swing it where I need to, but only if I have a tool in my hand.  And my gun is your vote," Orbán said.

Ironically, Orbán portrays the upcoming elections as a decision between war and peace, where the Hungarian opposition and Western politicians would be willing to drag the European Union into another world war. 

“We must turn against the Soros Empire, if needs be, against US foreign policy, and must make it clear that Europe has a vested interest in returning to the negotiating table, instead of forcing a hopeless battlefield solution”, he stated in a recent radio interview. 

Whether such slogans will boost Fidesz, remains to be seen. But the current mood does not favour them and might result in a surprise, according to Krekó. 

“We have a completely new situation. Voters are deeply invested in the Magyar Péter phenomenon, so they are more likely to go to the polls, and the higher turnout favours the opposition. With this unexpected factor, the whole election has become atypical”, he added.