EPP's Orban struggle exposes deeper mainstream dilemma

Poland's Roza Thun, in an unusual and rare move from a fellow party member during a debate, challenged Bellamy, asking if journalists have to be murdered to prove the absence of press freedom.

Nowhere is the struggle between the traditional mainstream and the populist right more visible at a European level than within the EPP.

The challenge the Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban's party poses to the EPP goes to the heart of the dilemma of whether mainstream parties can withstand an increasingly-fragmented political landscape.

It also poses the question if the left-and-right party divide is outdated, and if it should be replaced with a divide between progressive parties championing for open societies and nationalist parties campaigning for closed ones.

This week EPP party officials have decided to roll over an ongoing suspension of its Hungarian member, the ruling Fidesz party.

The Hungarian premier, over the last decade, has eroded rule of law, centralised media, cracked down on civil society, run campaigns against migrants, the EU and US billionaire George Soros, and channelled EU funds to his allies.

This "non-decision" came as the party remained deeply divided over how to handle Orban.

Nordic and Benelux member parties becoming increasingly frustrated, while Spanish, French, Italian and central European member parties continue to back Orban.

Germany's Christian Democrats (CDU) are equally divided. Its Bavarian sister-party, the CSU, has become increasingly anti-Orban, after the Hungarian PM snubbed Manfred Weber, CSU candidate for the EU Commission's top post.

Orban's ideas, in fact, have some popularity within the EPP, even if many don't agree with the hateful rhetoric.

French and Italian members are meanwhile concerned about their own domestic political implications, if Orban teams up with far-right leaders Matteo Salvini (Italy) and Marine Le Pen (France).

In the meantime, Orban has hit back by accusing the EPP of cozying up to leftist and liberals in the face of surging populist parties, and has repeatedly boasted about the possibility of putting together a rival political party.

On Monday, the same day EPP decided to continue with the suspension, Orban spoke at a gathering of right-wing and far-right politicians in Rome.

He said the problem with today's EPP is that it wants to be part of the EU power structure at all costs.

Even "if the price is to concede certain values and make compromises with the left, they will do it, losing their identity step by step," adding that he aims to correct the EPP's course through a "counter-revolution".

We are family

After the fall of the Berlin Wall, German chancellor Helmut Kohl and Belgian prime minister Wilfried Martens pushed the EPP to become a true umbrella organisation for Christian Democrats and like-minded centre-right parties. At that time, Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia seemed the biggest risk.

Fidesz joined in 2000 after leaving a liberal organisation.

The strategy worked: since 1999 the EPP has been consistently the largest party in the European Parliament, and thus formed a strong grip over the commission leadership.

For years, the pressure grew on the EPP to act against Orban - but the party have sheltered Fidesz from serious sanctions. Former EPP party president Joseph Daul called Orban their "enfant terrible".

Other key factors in the EPP's calculations include: Fidesz MEPs sizeable contingent, avoiding Orban putting together a rival party after the 2019 EU election, and fearing liberal-minded members might flee elsewhere.

In 2018, the EPP leader in parliament, Weber, gearing up his candidacy for the commission top job, decided to support a parliament report triggering the Article 7 sanctions procedure against the Hungarian government, and most of his MEPs followed.

Tensions within EPP escalated when in early 2019 Orban's government went as far as running public campaigns against EPP member Jean-Claude Juncker, then commission president.

Last March, the EPP decided to suspend Fidesz's membership - which was then communicated by Budapest as if Fidesz had voluntarily suspended its own membership.

Despite the EPP's arguments that Orban would radicalise even further outside the party, the Hungarian PM upped the ante as he pushed out the Central European University's US-accredited programmes from Budapest, and did nothing to tone down hate-mongering.

Some hoped that Donald Tusk taking the EPP helm last November would bring change. But he could't bridge the gap.

Tusk instead has called for a congress next year at which the EPP will redefine itself.

"The Fidesz issue illustrated that all the parties, especially traditional mainstream parties in Europe, have trouble how to redefine their political identity," Tusk told reporters after Monday's meeting.

Realities

Domestically, Christian Democratic parties are facing similar challenges: whether to stick to the shrinking centre, or move to the right, where populist, anti-establishment, and anti-immigration parties across Europe have been making gains.

In other words, whether to reflect the changes in political realities and move from away from a right/left divide towards a new dichotomy.

For Orban, as always, the calculation is more pragmatic: if possible, stay within the biggest parliamentary group, otherwise form another alliance and lead it.

He perhaps has Salvini and Le Pen and some central European allies to count on, and possibly Poland's PiS, although the Polish ruling party, fiercely critical of Russia, would feel highly uncomfortable sitting with the pro-Russian Italian far-right leader.

And sooner or later, the dilemma will come to a boiling point within EPP.