Monday

4th Dec 2023

Opinion

The realists vs idealists Brussels battle on Ukraine's EU accession

  • Ukraine president Volodymr Zelensky meeting EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. The danger is that accession status to the EU, the so-called 'waiting room of Europe', can lead to unfulfilled expectations — on both sides (Photo: European Commission)
Listen to article

The formal granting of any EU accession status is seen as a crucial milestone in Kyiv's path towards Europe. But in reality even the initiation of formal accession negotiations, on which a decision is to be taken soon in Brussels, is anything but straightforward.

And, as the experience of other current candidate countries shows, the accession to this so-called 'waiting room of Europe' can lead to unfulfilled expectations — on both sides.

Read and decide

Join EUobserver today

Become an expert on Europe

Get instant access to all articles — and 20 years of archives. 14-day free trial.

... or subscribe as a group

That, in turn, has often led to twin problems: euroscepticism in candidate countries, and 'expansion fatigue' in existing member states.

To break this chain reaction of unintended consequences, Brussels should embrace an 'idealist' perspective in its interactions with the Kyiv leadership, by which reforms are the overarching priority, but with significant spillover effects to other spheres in the long-term.

The problem of the 'realist' approach

So far, a certain paradox is obvious in Brussels' interaction with (potential) candidate countries, not least Ukraine.

Whilst the candidate countries' internal reforms are formally usually put very high on the agenda, they are — in reality —overridden by competing interests, either geopolitical or commercial.

Within Brussels, a camp of realists competes against a camp of idealists.

The geopolitical factor symbolises crucial differences in perception and outcomes: realists perceive Russia as a reason for caution and restraint in assessing Ukraine's reforms, fearing that any robust criticism of Ukraine's corruption or entrenched poverty may inadvertently bolster Russian propaganda.

In contrast, idealists posit that Ukraine's internal reform success is its most potent weapon against Moscow.

Yet the dominance of the realist camp in the Brussels' bureaucracy explains the EU's past and current behaviour towards Ukraine — in which reform shortcomings and failures are rarely openly called out.

Because of this caution in Brussels, the chance to foster internal, societal pressure within Ukraine itself for reforms, as the population sees the path towards the EU as its own overarching priority, is continuously missed.

And thus the self-fulfilling accession fatigue across the existing 27-member bloc is the result.

In an ideal world, this bottom-up pressure from Ukrainian society would not be necessary, and supposedly reformist politicians in candidate countries would act according to their pro-European speeches.

However, knowing that Brussels often prioritises other factors over reform in these states, their political elites make use of it to avoid painful domestic changes. Not least, for themselves — such as in the anti-corruption field.

As a result, a sort of charade is played: of partial or half-hearted reforms by candidate countries, and a pretence a seriously believing these reforms by Brussels.

In this game, upholding a European/EU future, such as in Ukraine, serves both actors, but the actual progress towards this goal, by conducting painful and far-stretching reforms, such as in the anti-corruption realm, enjoys a much lower priority.

This pretension leads to a self-fulfilling prophecy: by failing to openly call out pretend reforms, an important factor in facilitating deep and comprehensive political change in Ukraine is missing — which will, in turn, lead Brussels to keep the actual door towards the EU shut for Kyiv, as a non-reformed country would be a huge burden in and for the EU.

It is therefore obvious that in the real world, where actors on both sides prioritise easier more superficial issues than deep reforms, accession negotiations are mostly an act. The actors/politicians might change as Brussels negotiates with Kyiv, Belgrade, or Ankara, but the outcome will already be predictable.

To overcome this, Brussels must play a long-term game. In the military realm, the EU has already started to act accordingly by making clear that Kyiv will be supported as long as necessary to repel the Russian aggression.

However, internal reforms should follow the opposite logic of military support: they must be as quick as possible.

This is because momentum in reforming political institutions tends to disappear quickly, and a newly-enforced status quo is often hard to overcome.

This explains while the Ukrainian system has largely kept its key features since 1991 and the downfall of the Soviet Union.

Now, the momentum to change systemic vices such as high levels of corruption can be leveraged by a new emphasis in accession negotiations of prioritising reforms over other criteria.

In other words, it is time to embrace an idealist perspective in Brussels now. It is time to call out fake or ersatz reforms in order to catalyse the societal pressure necessary inside Ukraine to deter policymakers from perpetuating a counterproductive status quo.

But Brussels must also prioritise Ukraine's democratic, long-term success for the sake of overcoming its own accession fatigue and to turn the current, endless, purgatorial waiting room of the EU into a preparatory crammer school for future EU newcomers.

By being idealist, Brussels can have both in the future: reforms in candidate countries and increased geopolitical power. By being realist, it will likely have neither.

Author bio

Dr Michael Martin Richter is the author of Power, Politics, and Anti-Corruption Reforms in Ukraine: The Role of Western Actors and was previously research fellow at the Research Centre for East European Studies at the University of Bremen as well as a fellow at Harvard University and is soon-to-be postdoc research fellow at the University of Surrey within the Horizon 2020 REDEMOS project on EU democracy promotion abroad. His research focuses on democracy promotion in the post-Soviet space and his analyses have been published, among others, in Global Policy, the Journal of Common Market Studies, Politics and Governance, Vox Ukraine, and New Eastern Europe.

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this opinion piece are the author's, not those of EUobserver.

How the arms industry wins whether Ukraine wins or loses

In reality, the EU's Act in Support of Ammunition Production has little, if anything, to do with supporting Ukraine, and everything to do with guaranteeing the profit-driven interests of Europe's highly-lucrative arms industry.

Five frontline EU states push to extend Ukraine grain ban

Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia called on the European Commission to extend their ban on Ukrainian grain imports until the end of 2023 in a bid to safeguard their farmers and agricultural sector.

Why EU's €18m for Israel undermines peace

The optics of a nine-fold increase of annual funding for Israel, in the middle of its devastating military campaign in Gaza, stands in contrast with the attempted suspension, delaying and constraining of EU development aid for the Palestinians.

Dubai's COP28 — a view from the ground

Discussion of the biggest existential threat humanity has ever faced is barely mentioned on billboards or signage in Dubai — yet visitors are made aware quite quickly that t world rugby sevens tournament is imminent.

Latest News

  1. Afghanistan is a 'forever emergency,' says UN head
  2. EU public procurement reform 'ineffective', find auditors
  3. COP28 warned over-relying on carbon capture costs €27 trillion
  4. Optimising Alzheimer's disease health care pathways across Europe
  5. Georgian far-right leader laughs off potential EU sanctions
  6. The EU's U-turn on caged farm animals — explained
  7. EU-China summit and migration files in focus This WEEK
  8. COP28 debates climate finance amid inflated accounting 'mess'

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. Nordic Council of MinistersArtist Jessie Kleemann at Nordic pavilion during UN climate summit COP28
  2. Nordic Council of MinistersCOP28: Gathering Nordic and global experts to put food and health on the agenda
  3. Friedrich Naumann FoundationPoems of Liberty – Call for Submission “Human Rights in Inhume War”: 250€ honorary fee for selected poems
  4. World BankWorld Bank report: How to create a future where the rewards of technology benefit all levels of society?
  5. Georgia Ministry of Foreign AffairsThis autumn Europalia arts festival is all about GEORGIA!
  6. UNOPSFostering health system resilience in fragile and conflict-affected countries

Stakeholders' Highlights

  1. European Citizen's InitiativeThe European Commission launches the ‘ImagineEU’ competition for secondary school students in the EU.
  2. Nordic Council of MinistersThe Nordic Region is stepping up its efforts to reduce food waste
  3. UNOPSUNOPS begins works under EU-funded project to repair schools in Ukraine
  4. Georgia Ministry of Foreign AffairsGeorgia effectively prevents sanctions evasion against Russia – confirm EU, UK, USA
  5. Nordic Council of MinistersGlobal interest in the new Nordic Nutrition Recommendations – here are the speakers for the launch
  6. Nordic Council of Ministers20 June: Launch of the new Nordic Nutrition Recommendations

Join EUobserver

Support quality EU news

Join us